Will September 2024 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Environmental Information update the predicted date for the release of data. The predicted date can be found in the row labeled September in the Global table at this link.
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September market with more options
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-septembe
@ChristopherRandles Should clarify that these are two different data sets. There are 4 markets now on global temperature anomalies. Your, GISTEMP (linked by you above), a NOAA (https://manifold.markets/PaperBoy/will-september-2024-be-the-hottest-6d585fc6ed85) and NCEI (this one) (which as far as I understand the NOAA report uses the NCEI dataset so they are essentially duplicates), and an ERA5 one https://manifold.markets/LCBOB/will-september-2024-will-be-the-war
I swear someone (myself included as a candidate) is going to update on the wrong one and lose a lot of mana ... it's also time consuming to double check every time you update all four markets if your updating on them even once a day.
I would request of all four creators that they rename the titles and put the dataset or resolution source first in parenthesis to avoid this scenario...
I.e. this market would be renamed to:
(GISTEMP) Will September 2024 be the hottest September ever etc...
Please consider this, @LCBOB , @ChristopherRandles , @PaperBoy , @AaronSimansky