Background

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of unique traders in each open market on Manifold at exactly 12:00:00 PM ET on December 31, 2024. A market will be considered "open" if it has not resolved and has not been closed by its creator. Markets that resolve YES will be those that rank in the top 5 by number of unique traders at the specified time.

For markets that are duplicates or have been deleted, the following rules apply:

• If a market is deleted before the resolution time, it will resolve NO

• If there are multiple versions of the same market, only the one with the most traders will be counted

• In case of a tie for 5th place, all markets with that number of traders will resolve YES

Considerations

• Markets that resolve before December 31, 2024, will automatically resolve NO

• The ranking will be determined by the total number of unique traders who have made at least one trade in the market, not by trading volume or number of trades

• Markets created closer to the resolution date may have less time to accumulate traders

• High-profile news events occurring near the resolution date could significantly impact trader participation in related markets

On Adding Answers:

• I reserve the right to disqualify any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

Anyone can add names to this list. The option labeled "other" is just the placeholder for other answers that might be added to this market later. Anyone can add a new name, however, names that are spam or nonsense are subject to disqualification by me. If disqualified the answer will automatically resolve "no"

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.