Aaron Lehmann's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.94
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Aaron Lehmann bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will the LK-99 poll (by Quantum Observer) reach 5K traders by the end of this month (Aug 2023)?YESṀ3,000
- Will the Economist publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week?YESṀ3,000
- Will Arstechnica publish an article about LK-99 within the next 48 hours?YESṀ2,180