Will YouTube be blocked in Russia before the end of 2023?
Dec 31

This question is inspired by the 2022 market: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-youtube-be-blocked-in-russia-i

Resultion criteria

I will use the same resolution criteria as the 2021 and 2022 questions on Metaculus:
This question will resolve positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days between market start and December 31, 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively.

Author betting policy

I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.

The 2022 market:

UPD 2022-12-20: updated target period in the market description to match the question (2023 instead of 2022).

Sort by:
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshimabought Ṁ100 of NO

@NoaNabeshima Oops, this link is for the wrong year. Please ignore

NikitaSkovoroda avatar
Nikita Skovorodabought Ṁ100 of YES

Domain seems blocked atm?

jcb avatar
jcbis predicting NO at 51%

@NikitaSkovoroda These blocks seem to date from 2014 and 2016?

I don't see any news indicating that Youtube is blocked, though it looks like a prosecutor is trying: https://www.easternherald.com/2023/02/24/vladimirs-prosecutors-office-demanded-to-block-youtube-in-russia/

NikitaSkovoroda avatar
Nikita Skovorodabought Ṁ10 of NO

@jcb the actual court decision appears to be from 2014-2016, but it seems to have appeared as an entry in the digital blocklist recently? The blocklist that ISPs have to use. Not very sure yet though

PS avatar
PSbought Ṁ25 of YES

Last week, Evegni Prigozhin said YouTube would be banned in Russia soon (source in Russian). Although he does certainly not set such policies, he might or might not know something.