Will YouTube be blocked in Russia before the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

Will YouTube be blocked in Russia before the end of 2023?

Dec 31

84

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is inspired by the 2022 market: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-youtube-be-blocked-in-russia-i

Resultion criteria

I will use the same resolution criteria as the 2021 and 2022 questions on Metaculus:
This question will resolve positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days between market start and December 31, 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively.

Author betting policy

I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.

The 2022 market:

UPD 2022-12-20: updated target period in the market description to match the question (2023 instead of 2022).

Internet Censorship

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Noa Nabeshimabought Ṁ100 of NO

@NoaNabeshima Oops, this link is for the wrong year. Please ignore

Nikita Skovorodabought Ṁ100 of YES

Domain seems blocked atm?

jcbis predicting NO at 51%

@NikitaSkovoroda These blocks seem to date from 2014 and 2016?

I don't see any news indicating that Youtube is blocked, though it looks like a prosecutor is trying: https://www.easternherald.com/2023/02/24/vladimirs-prosecutors-office-demanded-to-block-youtube-in-russia/

Nikita Skovorodabought Ṁ10 of NO

@jcb the actual court decision appears to be from 2014-2016, but it seems to have appeared as an entry in the digital blocklist recently? The blocklist that ISPs have to use. Not very sure yet though

PSbought Ṁ25 of YES

Last week, Evegni Prigozhin said YouTube would be banned in Russia soon (source in Russian). Although he does certainly not set such policies, he might or might not know something.

Dmitry Bushev sold Ṁ33 NO from 36% to 37%

_ ** bought Ṁ30 NO from 37% to 36%

Shai Natapov sold Ṁ100 NO from 34% to 37%

Shai Natapov bought Ṁ100 NO from 37% to 34%

JuJumper bought Ṁ10 YES from 36% to 37%

Alcher Black bought Ṁ45 NO from 37% to 36%

Primer bought Ṁ50 NO from 38% to 37%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 45%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 30%

jmfm sold Ṁ7 NO at 38%

Victor Li bought Ṁ51 NO from 40% to 38%

Valery Cherepanov sold Ṁ61 NO from 38% to 40%

Valery Cherepanov sold Ṁ58 NO from 37% to 38%

Victor Li sold Ṁ1 NO at 37%

Irigi bought Ṁ10 NO at 37%

Noa Nabeshima bought Ṁ100 NO from 39% to 37%

Valery Cherepanov bought Ṁ50 NO from 40% to 39%

Valery Cherepanov bought Ṁ100 NO at 40%

Victor Li bought Ṁ50 NO from 41% to 40%

Victor Li bought Ṁ46 NO from 42% to 41%

42irrationalist bought Ṁ50 NO from 43% to 42%

42irrationalist sold Ṁ31 YES from 45% to 43%

Valery Cherepanov bought Ṁ100 NO from 46% to 45%

SvenS created limit order for Ṁ90 NO at 64%

SvenS filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 40%

SvenS sold Ṁ32 NO from 45% to 46%

Nikita Skovoroda bought Ṁ10 NO at 45%

Chippy 2 bought Ṁ10 YES at 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 45%

Predictor 🔥 bought Ṁ27 NO from 47% to 46%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 NO at 47% (cancelled)

prigoryan bought Ṁ90 NO from 51% to 48%

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ400 NO at 97% (cancelled)

Nikita Skovoroda sold Ṁ60 YES from 53% to 51%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ55/Ṁ100 YES at 53% (cancelled)

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ300 NO at 92%

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 85% (cancelled)

CatneeBot created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 75%

CatneeBot filled limit order Ṁ97/Ṁ97 YES at 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 NO at 51% (cancelled)

CatneeBot bought Ṁ100 NO from 56% to 52%

CatneeBot sold Ṁ194 YES from 62% to 56%

CatneeBot bought Ṁ100 YES from 60% to 62%

CatneeBot bought Ṁ100 YES at 60%

Nikita Skovoroda bought Ṁ110 YES from 57% to 60%

Nikita Skovoroda bought Ṁ110 YES from 53% to 57%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 NO at 53% (cancelled)

Nikita Skovoroda bought Ṁ100 YES from 50% to 53%

Nikita Skovoroda bought Ṁ100 YES from 46% to 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 NO at 46% (cancelled)

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