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It's not possible to reach 7 days after today?

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There have been 55% instances of an increase in USD/RUB the past year, 42% with a decrease and 3% of no change.

P(7day streak "Increase") = 0.55^7 ≈ 0.00034. With 76 days left in 2023: Expected number of 7-day streaks = 0.00034 * 76 ≈ 0.0258

Putin ordered a sale of foreign currency revenues for some exporters which could strengthen the currency together with crude oil prices increasing over the past weeks. Yet Western sanctions are still impacting Russian revenues and with today's geopolitical tensions causing uncertainty, I believe there is a low chance of a 7 day streak in 2023.

Reference:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rouble-soars-past-96-vs-dollar-after-putin-reintroduces-currency-controls-2023-10-12/

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/081623-weaker-ruble-boosts-russian-oil-output-economics-while-government-intervenes-to-combat-inflation

Rouble slides to over 7-week low past 100 per dollar as Putin speaks

The Russian rouble weakened past 100 to the dollar to a more than seven-week low as President Vladimir Putin spoke on Thursday, hurt by reduced foreign currency supply from exporters early in the month.

Ruble gaining another 3% today, it’s basically over. few hours left to exit “yes” positions before Americans wake up

This happened again.

Can you all please bring this down to 60% again like last time?

Put another M1500 limit @ 65%

@SpiralChameleon And another M1500 @ 75%

@Ouroboros And now M2000 @ 80%

Put a M1500 limit at 60% YES since people keep betting this down

Portfolio of currently open markets related to USD/RUB pair: https://manifold.markets/portfolio/usdrub-2023

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Ruble gaining another 3% today, it’s basically over. few hours left to exit “yes” positions before Americans wake up

@lukres There are still 4.5 months ahead of us.

@gigab0nus Yeah but the market was at 50% when rubusd was where it is now, and that was before we learned of the central bank’s determination to protect it.

@lukres I agree that the „this market will resolve in August“ mentality is over (which I was betting on, bc. I need the liquidity). But their low inflation rates don‘t allow for further rate hikes. I believe they know that and that that is why they are using such psychological marks like 100 for manipulation. Putin e.g. is a strong opponent of rate hikes right now.

@gigab0nus I don't disagree, I might reverse to yes at 40 or 50%, but the current rate won't last past US morning. Shame I don't have any balance left.

@lukres Okay yeah I havent been here for long enough to predict how the market will overreact

I know it was a strong signal from the central bank, showing that <100 is an important threshold. But they wont kill their economy, just for this number to look good, right?

Yahoo only tracks Mo-Fr. Do we need 7 or 5 of them (as long as a weekend is included)?

@gigab0nus For days without a record I will use the last recorded close price. So if the price is 105 from Monday to Friday, and there are no records for subsequent Saturday and Sunday, the resolution will be YES.

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