Will Borussia Dortmund's womens football team complete their speedrun and make it to the 1. Bundesliga by 2027?
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3
Ṁ84
2027
60%
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Borussia Dortmund was relatively late among the major German football clubs to form a women's team. When they did, they decided to start from zero in the lowest leagues (instead of merging with / buying a local club in a higher league, as some other well-known clubs have done): https://www.kicker.de/warum-die-bvb-frauen-nur-bezirksliga-spielen-912447/artikel

Of course they were able to choose players from a huge run of applicants and could form a team that was far too good for the 7th tier (Kreisliga A) that they started in. The result is essentially a speedrun through the lower leagues. The team ended up demolishing both the 7th tier (18 / 18 wins, 143 - 3 goals) and the 6th tier (24 / 24 wins, 143 - 5 goals [yes they scored exactly the same number of goals again]).

In the 5th tier, they drew a game for the first time, but are in clear first place (https://www.fussball.de/mannschaft/borussia-dortmund-borussia-dortmund-westfalen/-/saison/2324/team-id/02EM2C1FF4000000VS5489B1VU24SJ9U#!/) and will undoubtedly promote for the third time in a row.

The club itself has mentioned a few times that they are eyeing 2027 as the date when they would ideally join highest league, the 1. Bundesliga (e. g. here: https://www.bvb.de/News/Uebersicht/BVB-Frauen-Auf-zu-neuen-Ufern). But for that, they would need to continue their run through the leagues without a setback. Will they achieve six promotions in a row? Resolves YES if their team is in the top flight of German women's football from the 2027 / 2028 season onwards. Only case that I can think of where I'd resolve that as NO is if they skip a league because they end up changing their mind and merge with a team in a higher league. If they promote from a league only for technical reasons (i. e. a team from a higher league forfitting their starting right), I'll still count that as YES.

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This year's season just ended. They went 23 - 1 - 0 with 124:6 goals. Promoted to the 4th league 21 points ahead of second place. (https://www.fussball.de/ajax.team.table/-/saison/2324/staffel/02M9NAFDNK000000VS5489B3VVRQ15EP-G/team-id/02EM2C1FF4000000VS5489B1VU24SJ9U)

bought Ṁ25 NO

One thing I like about Manifold is that I frequently get surprised by the direction a market takes. I assumed that this should for sure be below 50%, but the first traders bought YES. Will be interesting to see how it develops over time.

Alternatively, if Bonsoia Dorsibohd makes it to the Bundesliga by 212B3 as the AI banner seems to imply, this also resolves as YES.

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