Resolves YES for all players included in the 23 or 26-men squad reported to UEFA at the June 7th deadline. Subsequent changes to the squad don't count, i. e. players who are out for injuries or other reasons after the deadline still resolve as YES and their replacements resolve as NO. Feel free to add answers!
1,000
3.00@ADings The official selections have been made, this can resolve. Thank you!
https://www.goal.com/en-us/lists/germany-euro-2024-squad-julian-nagelsmann/blt94b02e94f325cce6
@Gideon37 https://www.dfb.de/maenner-nationalmannschaft/team/
27 players at least one will be dropped
UEFA has decided to allow 26 instead of 23 players in the squads. It's not clear if Nagelsmann will nominate 26, but I'll obviously resolve YES for all 26 if he does. https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/ck5k3d1j34do
https://www.sportschau.de/fussball/nationalmannschaft/analyse-deutschland-niederlande-test-laenderspiel-100.html
Nagelsmann states that he will more or less nominate the squad that just played the friendlies against France and the Netherlands. Unusual step to state this so overtly two months before the nomination, making this market a lot less uncertain...
Great market! Considering making these for the US Men's squad for Copa America and World Cup. There's so much speculation about these rosters and yet no hub for actual probabilities. Feel like this type of market could attract a lot of attention for Manifold on Twitter/Reddit if it finds the right communities.
@Charlie Yes, apart from the English squad there aren't even betting odds as far as I could see. With our German team in particular, the discussion has rarely felt so open, usually it's 30-40 names that get narrowed down to 23, this time I don't think even the 50+ players I've listed here cover every dark horse. Would love to see similar markets on other teams.
@ADings Sounds like a great talent pool. It's always fun when a youngster is on a great run of form and there starts to be national team hype. I think markets like these would be great for either quelling that hype or awarding the internet scouts who correctly identify a rising star. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if Manifold is big enough for these markets to organically garner a critical mass of bettors. But like I said if you promote it to the right folks, it could be the go to (and only) landing place for realistic roster odds.