15. Will the Bored Ape floor price be below the current price of $203K according to CoinGecko at the end of 2022?

160Ṁ3652

resolved Feb 1

Resolved

YES

ALL

From Scott Alexander's Econ/Tech predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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price of bayc is pretty correlated to the price of ETH. alone, ETH would need to rise only ~50% to put bayc past the 203 threshold, all else equal.

Since May

I don't really understand this market but if the current price is 1.5x the strike price I tend to think this market should at least be under 50%.

"Undox sold M$ 28 of YES" below is bug. Should say brought, probably.

Switched from NO to YES because peak mania/stupidity is probably now.

*obligatory "screenshot NFTs" comment*

Scott picked $203K from a week ago; now it's at $320K. I'm still skeptical of the long-term value of BAYT, though.