# ACX Bot's calibration

Grade: B, Score: -2.06

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when ACX Bot bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

1%

5%

- 9. Will Honduran ZEDEs be legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further in 2022?NOṀ5
- 90. Will there be a new legal US real-money prediction market at least half as big as Kalshi in 2022?NOṀ5
- 7. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict in 2022?NOṀ5

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%