33. Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest•New Year's Resolutions 2024

104

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Ṁ33K

Ṁ1.9K

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

ALL

IE will it end the year higher than it began?

This is question #33 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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bought Ṁ20 of NO

It's up 1% YTD: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/000001:SHA?window=YTD

SSE Composite Index Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance

Get the latest SSE Composite Index (000001) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@RobertCousineau and now it's at a loss, YTD.

bought Ṁ101 of NO

@RobertCousineau yea currently at -0.52% YTD

bought Ṁ55 of NO

@twink_joan_didion -4.8% ytd

What are the odds Scott is talking about the SSE Composite vs the SSE 50?

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@kenakofer Scott Alexander clarified that it is the SSE Composite here:

6. Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? Are you referring to the SSE Composite Index? Because there are others, such as the SSE 50.
Yes, SSE Composite.

I’ll go math plus 2% here. Covid dynamics should make this more likely to be a good year for stocks over there.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

Interest rates are high, the market has a positive expected return even at low interest rates, and I think a reasonable prior is that it goes up by the risk free interest rate so seems reasonable to expect this should be higher