Will I have at least M1000 profit from Mira's arbitrage bot at the end of August 2023?
Basic
4
Ṁ581
resolved May 28
Resolved
NO

See the embedded market for context. Will my investment there of M5010 produce a profit of at least M1000 for me when this market closes?

The profit doesn't necessarily need to be paid out, if it just shows up on the virtual account statements that will be sufficient (unless I have reason to think that those statements are erroneous). If it's partially paid out and partially remains in the virtual account I'll add those together. Both active and passive profit are included, if applicable, as well as any other trading styles added later on.

Resolves YES if the total profit accrued at that time is greater or equal to M1000. Resolves NO if the total profit accrued is less than M1000. Resolves NO if I have reason to believe that the virtual account balance is materially incorrect by a large amount (e.g. if Mira steals all the mana invested -- I'm not expecting that to happen of course!). Resolves NO if Mira cancels the investment opportunity and refunds my mana (unless the refund is larger than my investment by at least M1000). Does not resolve early if my profit reaches M1000 (since it may go back down before August 31) but may resolve early if one of the other criteria is met.

I will not attempt to manipulate this market, and I reserve the right to resolve it N/A if it appears to be creating bad incentives or if requested by Mira.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@A I just bet on myself and this pushed your % down because your book order was smaller than others.

Del rest

@ChristopherRandles Hmm I like the idea but at a 5x multiplier that's a lot of mana to risk...

@A now he has paired with me I guess we are too late -del rest

@ChristopherRandles Do you have discord?

@A Display name is del rest

Investment was cancelled -- resolves NO

predicted YES

@A hey, what if something changes again

@Catnee The description specifically states that it "Resolves NO if Mira cancels the investment opportunity and refunds my mana", which happened. If things change again I'd be putting in a new separate investment which wouldn't affect the outcome of this market.

The main risk is just "What if we raise too much money and saturate the strategy, and I don't implement more advanced strategies in time?"

If I was investing M5k, this seems easy.

If M500k, maybe 50%? If someone went through all 14,000 open markets and left no stone unturned....

M1000k+, it would have to wait for a more advanced strategy.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules