USA: Norris wins at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas

USA: Hamilton finishes ahead of George Russel

USA: Norris scores 8 or more points more than Verstappen

USA: Norris finishes the 1st lap lower in race position than he qualified

USA: Will there be a physical safety car used

USA: Will there be a red flag during the race?

USA: Piastri overtakes Norris on track (not pitstops)

Stub question, please ignore (to keep market open)

MEX: Norris finishes the 1st lap lower in race position than he qualified

MEX: Leclerc scores 4 points more than Norris scores (closing on 2nd WDC spot)

MEX: Will there be a physical safety car used

MEX: Perez qualifies lower than 10th place (Out before Q3)

BRA: Max gets an engine penalty during either sprint or race

BRA: Norris gets 11 points more than Verstappen (main race)

BRA: Verstappen gets a penalty for forcing another driver off track

BRA: Norris finishes the 1st lap lower in race position than he qualified

BRA: Leclerc finishes on the podium in the sprint

BRA: Will there be a physical safety car used in either sprint or race

BRA: Perez crashes his car during either qualifying or (Sprint) race and DNFs the session

BRA: Sprint: Bearmann finishes in the top 10 in the sprint

BRA: Bearmann participates in the main race

BRA: no laps without safety car will be driven in the main GP (like Spa 2021) or GP is cancelled

BRA: No qualifying will take place at all for main GP

BRA: Less than 10 round under green flag conditions

BRA: Race gets full points, not half points or less.

BRA: More than 15 cars finish the main race (cross line on last lap raced)

BRA: More than 10 cars finish the main race (cross line on last lap raced)

BRA: 10% for each car not lapped at end of race (max 100%)

LASV: Verstappen becomes guaranteed driver champion

LASV: Perez DNF the race or crashes during qualifying

LASV: A Williams car crashes and cannot finish the session during any FP, qualy or race

LASV: Lance Stroll DNF's a session of practice, qualy or race

The 1 market for bets on the Formula 1 2024 season. Questions have a prefix to indicate which grand prix they relate to, for example GB: is for the Great Britain Silverstone race happening 5-7th of July

Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: 

https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns (11/21) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Tennessee Titans beat Houston Texans (11/24) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Minnesota Vikings beat Chicago Bears (11/24) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Dallas Cowboys beat Washington Commanders (11/24) 1:00 PM (FOX)

New England Patriots beat Miami Dolphins (11/24) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Kansas City Chiefs beat Carolina Panthers (11/24) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New York Giants (11/24) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Detroit Lions beat Indianapolis Colts (11/24) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Denver Broncos beat Las Vegas Raiders (11/24) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Arizona Cardinals beat Seattle Seahawks (11/24) 4:25 PM (FOX)

San Francisco 49ers beat Green Bay Packers (11/24) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Philadelphia Eagles beat Los Angeles Rams (11/24) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Baltimore Ravens beat Los Angeles Chargers (11/25) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Resolves YES if Lewis Hamilton finishes in 3rd place or higher in the World Drivers Championship in 2024, either by season end, or when his position becomes mathematically impossible to challenge.

If Lewis Hamilton is replaced mid-season/retires or is otherwise no longer a driver on the grid the market will continue, using his final points in the standings prior to his leaving for the market.

If Hamilton never starts the 2024 season (eg. retires between 2023 season end, and the first 2024 race) the market will resolve N/A. As soon as Hamilton participates in a Grand Prix practice session, the market will count his participation in the season.

11/24 16:25 ET 49ers: Will Brock Purdy (shoulder) play?

11/24 13:00 ET Bears: Will D'Andre Swift (groin) play?

11/24 13:00 ET Bears: Will Keenan Allen (ankle) play?

11/24 13:00 ET Giants: Will Malik Nabers (groin) play?

11/24 13:00 ET Buccaneers: Will Mike Evans (hamstring) play?

11/24 16:25 ET Seahawks: Will Noah Fant (groin) play?

11/25 20:15 ET Chargers: Will Ladd McConkey (shoulder) play?

If the player records at least 1 snap it will resolve YES.

Resolves YES if by the end of the 2024 season, Charles Leclerc finishes ahead of Carlos Sainz in the World Drivers Championship with more points.

Market will continue regardless if either driver changes teams.

Market will continue if either driver retires or is otherwise unable to race for a portion/remainder of the season.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them.

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:

Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

 which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected, OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2, and 3. I 

wonder which company will be #1 at the end of 2024. 

Screenshot of the rankings table taken on the 13th of December: 

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

All definitions and rules outlined by the market creator (@Lion) apply solely to the Mana version of this question. I can only address questions related to the Mana version. For  questions about the Sweepstakes market, please contact Manifold Markets directly.

The Mana version will be resolved according to the following rules. If you have any questions or if any resolution criteria or edge cases are unclear, please ask before trading. Otherwise, the Mana version will be resolved based on my judgement. Note that the Mana version may resolve differently from the Sweepstakes version.

 as the Person of the Year for this market to resolve as YES. For example, if TIME Magazine’s 2024 Person of the Year is named as "Donald J. Trump," "Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance," "Donald J. Trump and The Grand Old Party," or "Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk," this market will resolve as YES. However, if the Person of the Year is identified as a group or entity that does not directly name Trump, such as "All Americans" or "The Grand Old Party," this market will resolve as NO.

This question specifically pertains to Donald John Trump, born on June 14, 1946, the 45th President of the United States and winner of the 2024 US election. If another person, such as Donald Trump Jr., is named without the explicit inclusion of Donald J. Trump, the market will resolve as NO. (“Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr.” would still resolve as YES)

The close date for this market will be adjusted to the evening before TIME Magazine announces the Person of the Year (POTY). Liquidity might be reduced earlier.

Will resolve to yes if he issues any pardon or commutation of sentence. 

This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. 

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