: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

OpenAI is working on a Google Search rival

. Will it release to the public by the end of 2024?

This market resolves Yes for a full version of a web search product, whether it's free or paid. Resolves No if the product is never released, or if it's still in alpha/beta.

This market resolves to the year in which an AI system exists which is capable of passing a high quality, adversarial Turing test. It is used for the Big Clock on the 

this Metaculus Question by Matthew Barnett, 

Longbets wager between Ray Kurzweil and Mitch Kapor. 

As of market creation, Metaculus predicts there is an ~

 that an AI will pass the Longbets Turing test before 2030, with a median community prediction of July 2028.

Manifold's current prediction of the specific Longbets Turing test can be found here:

This question is intended to determine the Manifold community's median prediction, not just of the Longbets wager specifically but of any similiarly high-quality test.

Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question. Your feedback is welcome in the comments.

Roko: "...The net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount." https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1770045723188383975

'/rokomijic/status/1770045723188383975':21 'amount':18 'contribut':6 'gdp':10 'larg':17 'negat':12 'net':3 'product':5 'roko':1 'total':4 'twitter.com':20 'twitter.com/rokomijic/status/1770045723188383975':19 'women':8

Nate Silver: "...Election denialism is a good place to draw a harder line, actually." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1772264031899816423

'/natesilver538/status/1772264031899816423':17 'actual':14 'denial':4 'draw':10 'elect':3 'good':7 'harder':12 'line':13 'nate':1 'place':8 'silver':2 'twitter.com':16 'twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1772264031899816423':15

Aella: "I think I was wrong about feminism. I used to be much more feminism-skeptical than I am today..." https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1773241333643145289

'/aella_girl/status/1773241333643145289':24 'aella':1 'femin':8,16 'feminism-skept':15 'much':13 'skeptic':17 'think':3 'today':21 'twitter.com':23 'twitter.com/aella_girl/status/1773241333643145289':22 'use':10 'wrong':6

Yudkowsky: "Current AIs are roughly as generally intelligent as human 4-year-olds, as dangerous as 4-year-olds, and as controllable as 4-year-olds." https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1773591921996268027

'/esyudkowsky/status/1773591921996268027':32 '4':11,18,26 'ai':3 'control':24 'current':2 'danger':16 'general':7 'human':10 'intellig':8 'old':14,21,29 'rough':5 'twitter.com':31 'twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/1773591921996268027':30 'year':13,20,28 'year-old':12,19,27 'yudkowski':1

Emmett Shear: "Happy Easter! It’s too bad they’ve killed the bird branding on Twitter, or we could have an egg hunt here." https://twitter.com/eshear/status/1774419161550328283

'/eshear/status/1774419161550328283':27 'bad':8 'bird':13 'brand':14 'could':19 'easter':4 'egg':22 'emmett':1 'happi':3 'hunt':23 'kill':11 'shear':2 'twitter':16 'twitter.com':26 'twitter.com/eshear/status/1774419161550328283':25 've':10

Matthew Barnett: "It's interesting that we actually got something like a 6 month pause that FLI was asking for in their open letter." https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1774242147346387216

'/matthewjbar/status/1774242147346387216':27 '6':13 'actual':8 'ask':19 'barnett':2 'fli':17 'got':9 'interest':5 'letter':24 'like':11 'matthew':1 'month':14 'open':23 'paus':15 'someth':10 'twitter.com':26 'twitter.com/matthewjbar/status/1774242147346387216':25

Roko: "Numba Go Up is  the usecase" (for crypto) https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1774140578424651942

'/rokomijic/status/1774140578424651942':12 'crypto':9 'go':3 'numba':2 'roko':1 'twitter.com':11 'twitter.com/rokomijic/status/1774140578424651942':10 'usecas':7

Peter Singer: "zoophilia is more morally correct/responsible than eating animals" https://x.com/PeterSinger/status/1723269850930491707

'/petersinger/status/1723269850930491707':13 'anim':10 'correct/responsible':7 'eat':9 'moral':6 'peter':1 'singer':2 'x.com':12 'x.com/petersinger/status/1723269850930491707':11 'zoophilia':3

Roko: "Plant based diets are probably very bad for you." https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1743690578250936639

'/rokomijic/status/1743690578250936639':13 'bad':8 'base':3 'diet':4 'plant':2 'probabl':6 'roko':1 'twitter.com':12 'twitter.com/rokomijic/status/1743690578250936639':11

@Duderichy: "The problem with roko is that he’s not very smart" https://twitter.com/Duderichy/status/1477828084019564546

'/duderichy/status/1477828084019564546':15 'duderichi':1 'problem':3 'roko':5 'smart':12 'twitter.com':14 'twitter.com/duderichy/status/1477828084019564546':13

Dimitri: "I don't care about your beliefs as long as you're smart" https://twitter.com/TheDimitriT/status/1773090831097803078

'/thedimitrit/status/1773090831097803078':17 'belief':8 'care':5 'dimitri':1 'long':10 're':13 'smart':14 'twitter.com':16 'twitter.com/thedimitrit/status/1773090831097803078':15

Hanania: "if you need to wash your hands after using the urinal, you're doing it wrong" https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1774499705218863199

'/richardhanania/status/1774499705218863199':20 'hanania':1 'hand':8 'need':4 're':14 'urin':12 'use':10 'wash':6 'wrong':17 'x.com':19 'x.com/richardhanania/status/1774499705218863199':18

i/o: "the big 5 personality traits explain the phenomenon of female-centric wokeness" https://x.com/eyeslasho/status/1773351469418160224

'/eyeslasho/status/1773351469418160224':17 '5':4 'big':3 'centric':13 'explain':7 'femal':12 'female-centr':11 'i/o':1 'person':5 'phenomenon':9 'trait':6 'woke':14 'x.com':16 'x.com/eyeslasho/status/1773351469418160224':15

@jeremymstamper "e/accs are suffering Jim Crow era oppression" by being turned away from parties for their affiliation https://twitter.com/jeremymstamper/status/1774477281999864173

'/jeremymstamper/status/1774477281999864173':20 'affili':17 'away':12 'crow':6 'e/accs':2 'era':7 'jeremymstamp':1 'jim':5 'oppress':8 'parti':14 'suffer':4 'turn':11 'twitter.com':19 'twitter.com/jeremymstamper/status/1774477281999864173':18

Stephen Neukam: "New Yorkers already think they are the center of the universe. Let's not make that worse." https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1776269366381715753

'/stephen_neukam/status/1776269366381715753':22 'alreadi':5 'center':10 'let':14 'make':17 'neukam':2 'new':3 'stephen':1 'think':6 'twitter.com':21 'twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1776269366381715753':20 'univers':13 'wors':19 'yorker':4

Dan Elton: "Even if #LongCOVID was not a thing, it's rational to mask at airports if u care about ur health" https://twitter.com/moreisdifferent/status/1776595020365095153

'/moreisdifferent/status/1776595020365095153':25 'airport':16 'care':19 'dan':1 'elton':2 'even':3 'health':22 'longcovid':5 'mask':14 'ration':12 'thing':9 'twitter.com':24 'twitter.com/moreisdifferent/status/1776595020365095153':23 'u':18 'ur':21

Yud: "how can you regard Bryan Johnson as anything but a hero?" https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1776086891311583394

'/esyudkowsky/status/1776086891311583394':15 'anyth':9 'bryan':6 'hero':12 'johnson':7 'regard':5 'twitter.com':14 'twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/1776086891311583394':13 'yud':1

Yacine: "utilitarianism is what happens to slaves when they lose God" https://twitter.com/yacineMTB/status/1774474147059347656

'/yacinemtb/status/1774474147059347656':14 'god':11 'happen':5 'lose':10 'slave':7 'twitter.com':13 'twitter.com/yacinemtb/status/1774474147059347656':12 'utilitarian':2 'yacin':1

Yglesias: "deep down people crave to be enslaved by their employer to a fixed routine and place of work..." https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1775344293370122470

'/mattyglesias/status/1775344293370122470':22 'crave':5 'deep':2 'employ':11 'enslav':8 'fix':14 'peopl':4 'place':17 'routin':15 'twitter.com':21 'twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1775344293370122470':20 'work':19 'yglesia':1

Hanania: "The ceasefire crowd doesn't get it. Israel has an actual enemy. It's not the enemy you wish they had." https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1776712070429601930

'/richardhanania/status/1776712070429601930':25 'actual':12 'ceasefir':3 'crowd':4 'doesn':5 'enemi':13,18 'get':7 'hanania':1 'israel':9 'twitter.com':24 'twitter.com/richardhanania/status/1776712070429601930':23 'wish':20

Brian Chau: "analogies are more often used to hide ignorance than to explain knowledge" https://x.com/psychosort/status/1776699545591673237

'/psychosort/status/1776699545591673237':17 'analog':3 'brian':1 'chau':2 'explain':13 'hide':9 'ignor':10 'knowledg':14 'often':6 'use':7 'x.com':16 'x.com/psychosort/status/1776699545591673237':15

Gordon Ramsay: "Pineapple does not go on top of pizza" https://twitter.com/GordonRamsay/status/849177082177482754?lang=en

'/gordonramsay/status/849177082177482754?lang=en':13 'go':6 'gordon':1 'pineappl':3 'pizza':10 'ramsay':2 'top':8 'twitter.com':12 'twitter.com/gordonramsay/status/849177082177482754?lang=en':11

Scott Alexander: Double-check stories about smart people supposedly not realizing the world is more complicated than their equations. https://twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/1733243040297611542

'/slatestarcodex/status/1733243040297611542':23 'alexand':2 'check':5 'complic':17 'doubl':4 'double-check':3 'equat':20 'peopl':9 'realiz':12 'scott':1 'smart':8 'stori':6 'suppos':10 'twitter.com':22 'twitter.com/slatestarcodex/status/1733243040297611542':21 'world':14

Roko: Centrally planned economies work better than market economies with today's compute https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1650939281551007754

'/rokomijic/status/1650939281551007754':16 'better':6 'central':2 'comput':13 'economi':4,9 'market':8 'plan':3 'roko':1 'today':11 'twitter.com':15 'twitter.com/rokomijic/status/1650939281551007754':14 'work':5

Richard Chappell: Utilitarianism just means taking "everyone matters equally" seriously, which other views deny. https://twitter.com/RYChappell/status/1586334574413373440

'/rychappell/status/1586334574413373440':17 'chappel':2 'deni':14 'equal':9 'everyon':7 'matter':8 'mean':5 'richard':1 'serious':10 'take':6 'twitter.com':16 'twitter.com/rychappell/status/1586334574413373440':15 'utilitarian':3 'view':13

Kat Woods: "Every ethical argument for having children is dominated by other options that are more effective" https://twitter.com/Kat__Woods/status/1776561239734317211

'/kat__woods/status/1776561239734317211':20 'argument':5 'children':8 'domin':10 'effect':17 'ethic':4 'everi':3 'kat':1 'option':13 'twitter.com':19 'twitter.com/kat__woods/status/1776561239734317211':18 'wood':2

Destiny: You're free to wear whatever as long as he's free to masturbate in the shower while thinking about your ass. (described more explicitly: https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal/status/1706744526252261377 )

'/theomniliberal/status/1706744526252261377':29 'ass':23 'describ':24 'destini':1 'explicit':26 'free':4,13 'long':9 'masturb':15 're':3 'shower':18 'think':20 'twitter.com':28 'twitter.com/theomniliberal/status/1706744526252261377':27 'wear':6 'whatev':7

Autumn: "a common rat/ssc/tpot mistake is reading charitably by mere habit, not as a thoughtful decision." https://twitter.com/adrusi/status/1776736515508359447

'/adrusi/status/1776736515508359447':19 'autumn':1 'charit':8 'common':3 'decis':16 'habit':11 'mere':10 'mistak':5 'rat/ssc/tpot':4 'read':7 'thought':15 'twitter.com':18 'twitter.com/adrusi/status/1776736515508359447':17

Hasan Abi (quoting Ted Kaczynsky): "The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race." https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1429811787570978817

'/hasanthehun/status/1429811787570978817':22 'abi':2 'consequ':11 'disast':15 'hasan':1 'human':18 'industri':7 'kaczynski':5 'quot':3 'race':19 'revolut':8 'ted':4 'twitter.com':21 'twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1429811787570978817':20

AGI should distribute the cosmic endowment partially in line with the distribution of present-day wealth https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1651740662436339713

'/rokomijic/status/1651740662436339713':20 'agi':1 'cosmic':5 'day':16 'distribut':3,12 'endow':6 'line':9 'partial':7 'present':15 'present-day':14 'twitter.com':19 'twitter.com/rokomijic/status/1651740662436339713':18 'wealth':17

Noah Smith: "political valences of fantasy franchises..." (see tweet) https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1775642688886653214

'/noahpinion/status/1775642688886653214':12 'fantasi':6 'franchis':7 'noah':1 'polit':3 'see':8 'smith':2 'tweet':9 'twitter.com':11 'twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1775642688886653214':10 'valenc':4

Vaush: Morally speaking, Israel-Palestine is not complicated. https://twitter.com/VaushV/status/1712256332194312544

'/vaushv/status/1712256332194312544':12 'complic':9 'israel':5 'israel-palestin':4 'moral':2 'palestin':6 'speak':3 'twitter.com':11 'twitter.com/vaushv/status/1712256332194312544':10 'vaush':1

Yudkowsky: "The rules say we must use consequentialism, but good people are deontologists, and virtue ethics is what actually works." https://twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/819678205900509184

'/esyudkowsky/status/819678205900509184':23 'actual':19 'consequenti':8 'deontologist':13 'ethic':16 'good':10 'must':6 'peopl':11 'rule':3 'say':4 'twitter.com':22 'twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/819678205900509184':21 'use':7 'virtu':15 'work':20 'yudkowski':1

Yudkowsky: Community notes are a "smashing home run" as a Twitter feature: https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1712908282581631372

'/esyudkowsky/status/1712908282581631372':15 'communiti':2 'featur':12 'home':7 'note':3 'run':8 'smash':6 'twitter':11 'twitter.com':14 'twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/1712908282581631372':13 'yudkowski':1

Plasma Ballin': Roko's basilisk will punish Roko for having such bad takes. https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1777119075635720413

'/plasmaballin/status/1777119075635720413':16 'bad':12 'ballin':2 'basilisk':5 'plasma':1 'punish':7 'roko':3,8 'take':13 'twitter.com':15 'twitter.com/plasmaballin/status/1777119075635720413':14

Plasma Ballin': As a dialetheist, I agree with people who say dialetheism is false. https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1777167818368094472

'/plasmaballin/status/1777167818368094472':17 'agre':7 'ballin':2 'dialeth':12 'dialetheist':5 'fals':14 'peopl':9 'plasma':1 'say':11 'twitter.com':16 'twitter.com/plasmaballin/status/1777167818368094472':15

Ryan Moulton: The terms "late stage capitalism" and "enshittification" lead to lack curiosity about why things are as they are. https://twitter.com/moultano/status/1777377238633304238

'/moultano/status/1777377238633304238':23 'capit':7 'curios':13 'enshittif':9 'lack':12 'late':5 'lead':10 'moulton':2 'ryan':1 'stage':6 'term':4 'thing':16 'twitter.com':22 'twitter.com/moultano/status/1777377238633304238':21

Armando di Matteo: "Anyway, has anyone else noticed how much Roko looks like Andrea Giambruno (Italian PM Giorgia Meloni's ex)?  Has anyone ever seen them both in the same room?" https://twitter.com/armando1987dim/status/1777636472880763334

'/armando1987dim/status/1777636472880763334':34 'andrea':14 'anyon':6,23 'anyway':4 'armando':1 'di':2 'els':7 'ever':24 'ex':21 'giambruno':15 'giorgia':18 'italian':16 'like':13 'look':12 'matteo':3 'meloni':19 'much':10 'notic':8 'pm':17 'roko':11 'room':31 'seen':25 'twitter.com':33 'twitter.com/armando1987dim/status/1777636472880763334':32

hydrology labeling in Apple Maps makes me want to huck my machine out the window
https://x.com/laurenancona/status/1672775969495568384

'/laurenancona/status/1672775969495568384':18 'appl':4 'huck':10 'hydrolog':1 'label':2 'machin':12 'make':6 'map':5 'want':8 'window':15 'x.com':17 'x.com/laurenancona/status/1672775969495568384':16

sama: "Eliezer has done more to accelerate AGI than anyone else" https://twitter.com/sama/status/1621621724507938816

'/sama/status/1621621724507938816':14 'acceler':7 'agi':8 'anyon':10 'done':4 'eliez':2 'els':11 'sama':1 'twitter.com':13 'twitter.com/sama/status/1621621724507938816':12

Noah Smith: "Bojack Horseman is just US Evangelion" https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1749313328240037998

'/noahpinion/status/1749313328240037998':11 'bojack':3 'evangelion':8 'horseman':4 'noah':1 'smith':2 'twitter.com':10 'twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1749313328240037998':9 'us':7

Erica: "after 4 sneezes in a row you have to be put down" https://x.com/ericanextdooor/status/1777487627387547756

'/ericanextdooor/status/1777487627387547756':16 '4':3 'erica':1 'put':12 'row':7 'sneez':4 'x.com':15 'x.com/ericanextdooor/status/1777487627387547756':14

Plasma Ballin': "If you're against nuclear power, you're not an environmentalist." https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1777922228924854623

'/plasmaballin/status/1777922228924854623':16 'ballin':2 'environmentalist':13 'nuclear':7 'plasma':1 'power':8 're':5,10 'twitter.com':15 'twitter.com/plasmaballin/status/1777922228924854623':14

roko: You can probably just look at the Sun. Your eyes are well-adapted to it.
 https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1777445253739389255

'/rokomijic/status/1777445253739389255':20 'adapt':15 'eye':11 'look':6 'probabl':4 'roko':1 'sun':9 'twitter.com':19 'twitter.com/rokomijic/status/1777445253739389255':18 'well':14 'well-adapt':13

Cycling Professor: “Did you know that CAR LANES are the worst possible answer to the question of how to use road space efficiently?” https://x.com/fietsprofessor/status/1777690411361821098

'/fietsprofessor/status/1777690411361821098':26 'answer':13 'car':7 'cycl':1 'effici':23 'know':5 'lane':8 'possibl':12 'professor':2 'question':16 'road':21 'space':22 'use':20 'worst':11 'x.com':25 'x.com/fietsprofessor/status/1777690411361821098':24

roko: you absolutely should be able to birth people into debt https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1777721375479787888

'/rokomijic/status/1777721375479787888':14 'abl':6 'absolut':3 'birth':8 'debt':11 'peopl':9 'roko':1 'twitter.com':13 'twitter.com/rokomijic/status/1777721375479787888':12

Leem: "Car insurance should give you back your money if you don’t get in an accident. We getting scammed yall" https://twitter.com/leemahbo/status/1777737311339581809

'/leemahbo/status/1777737311339581809':24 'accid':17 'back':7 'car':2 'get':14,19 'give':5 'insur':3 'leem':1 'money':9 'scam':20 'twitter.com':23 'twitter.com/leemahbo/status/1777737311339581809':22 'yall':21

@mattyglesias: Middle class Americans live in... a time of unprecedented global prosperity and have ...convinced themselves that they are living through awful historical circumstances. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/177837328226736

'/mattyglesias/status/177837328226736':27 'american':4 'aw':22 'circumst':24 'class':3 'convinc':15 'global':11 'histor':23 'live':5,20 'mattyglesia':1 'middl':2 'prosper':12 'time':8 'twitter.com':26 'twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/177837328226736':25 'unpreced':10

“I keep telling guys, if you want meet quality women start with the gym. 

You don’t have to hit on them at the gym, just talk to them, real talk too. “

https://x.com/mikemayfieldlv/status/1777215702241579332

'/mikemayfieldlv/status/1777215702241579332':35 'guy':4 'gym':14,25 'hit':20 'keep':2 'meet':8 'qualiti':9 'real':30 'start':11 'talk':27,31 'tell':3 'want':7 'women':10 'x.com':34 'x.com/mikemayfieldlv/status/1777215702241579332':33

“sometimes I think about all the international drama we could have avoided if only Apple said ‘let's make iPhones work like Macs for installing apps’ “
https://mastodon.macstories.net/@viticci/112130424470259600

'/@viticci/112130424470259600':29 'app':26 'appl':15 'avoid':12 'could':10 'drama':8 'instal':25 'intern':7 'iphon':20 'let':17 'like':22 'mac':23 'make':19 'mastodon.macstories.net':28 'mastodon.macstories.net/@viticci/112130424470259600':27 'said':16 'sometim':1 'think':3 'work':21

The US government needs an agency dedicated to finding and fixing vulnerabilities in open-source software.
https://mastodon.social/@waldoj/112184439632932537

'/@waldoj/112184439632932537':20 'agenc':6 'dedic':7 'find':9 'fix':11 'govern':3 'mastodon.social':19 'mastodon.social/@waldoj/112184439632932537':18 'need':4 'open':15 'open-sourc':14 'softwar':17 'sourc':16 'us':2 'vulner':12

Growing Daniel: "I don't understand prostitution" https://twitter.com/growing_daniel/status/1778674649028866290

'/growing_daniel/status/1778674649028866290':10 'daniel':2 'grow':1 'prostitut':7 'twitter.com':9 'twitter.com/growing_daniel/status/1778674649028866290':8 'understand':6

Samswara: "patronage/nepotism networks are actually kind of good" https://twitter.com/samswoora/status/1778486792204722560

'/samswoora/status/1778486792204722560':11 'actual':5 'good':8 'kind':6 'network':3 'patronage/nepotism':2 'samswara':1 'twitter.com':10 'twitter.com/samswoora/status/1778486792204722560':9

girl fieri: "You should not take on life altering medical debt on behalf of an animal." https://twitter.com/realgirl_fieri/status/1778501893867610542

'/realgirl_fieri/status/1778501893867610542':19 'alter':9 'anim':16 'behalf':13 'debt':11 'fieri':2 'girl':1 'life':8 'medic':10 'take':6 'twitter.com':18 'twitter.com/realgirl_fieri/status/1778501893867610542':17

Salome Sibonex: "it's scary that we live in a society without shared stories/this is why people are obsessed with politics and macro-level news stories: for shared characters" https://x.com/SalomeSibonex/status/1778606492238709198 (+reply)

'/salomesibonex/status/1778606492238709198':33 'charact':30 'level':25 'live':8 'macro':24 'macro-level':23 'news':26 'obsess':19 'peopl':17 'polit':21 'repli':34 'salom':1 'scari':5 'share':13,29 'sibonex':2 'societi':11 'stori':27 'stories/this':14 'without':12 'x.com':32 'x.com/salomesibonex/status/1778606492238709198':31

Mike Ybarra (president of blizzard): I wish I could pay more for games I liked. https://twitter.com/Qwik/status/1778269707575119977

'/qwik/status/1778269707575119977':18 'blizzard':5 'could':9 'game':13 'like':15 'mike':1 'pay':10 'presid':3 'twitter.com':17 'twitter.com/qwik/status/1778269707575119977':16 'wish':7 'ybarra':2

Robin Hanson: "anyone should be able to sue an organisation that doesn't sufficiently try to fulfil their motto or mission statement" https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1778921933205103073

'/robinhanson/status/1778921933205103073':25 'abl':6 'anyon':3 'doesn':12 'fulfil':17 'hanson':2 'mission':21 'motto':19 'organis':10 'robin':1 'statement':22 'sue':8 'suffici':14 'tri':15 'twitter.com':24 'twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1778921933205103073':23

Yann LeCun: “WhatsApp vs iMessage is the new metric vs imperial.” 
https://x.com/ylecun/status/1778745216842760502?s=46&t=Jg5hf71eDvxayA9Ekf_sjQ

'/ylecun/status/1778745216842760502?s=46&t=jg5hf71edvxaya9ekf_sjq':14 'imessag':5 'imperi':11 'lecun':2 'metric':9 'new':8 'vs':4,10 'whatsapp':3 'x.com':13 'x.com/ylecun/status/1778745216842760502?s=46&t=jg5hf71edvxaya9ekf_sjq':12 'yann':1

The songs on the 1987 animated movie The Chipmunk Adventure really have no business being so good! https://en.osm.town/@seav/112264097427585847

'/@seav/112264097427585847':20 '1987':5 'adventur':10 'anim':6 'busi':14 'chipmunk':9 'en.osm.town':19 'en.osm.town/@seav/112264097427585847':18 'good':17 'movi':7 'realli':11 'song':2

'AI for good' is the tech companies shifting the blame towards the common people, the same way the auto industry did to pedestrian and oil industry did for recycling.
https://mapstodon.space/@hareldan/112263800144931334

'/@hareldan/112263800144931334':32 'ai':1 'auto':19 'blame':10 'common':13 'compani':7 'good':3 'industri':20,26 'mapstodon.space':31 'mapstodon.space/@hareldan/112263800144931334':30 'oil':25 'pedestrian':23 'peopl':14 'recycl':29 'shift':8 'tech':6 'toward':11 'way':17

Liz (@inerati): Incredibly sus of anyone who is really into “learning from history”.
https://x.com/inerati/status/1778803497787707534

'/inerati/status/1778803497787707534':16 'anyon':6 'histori':13 'incred':3 'inerati':2 'learn':11 'liz':1 'realli':9 'sus':4 'x.com':15 'x.com/inerati/status/1778803497787707534':14

Postrat_Dril: "You can sleep on a bench one day and in a five star hotel the next and itll be much better than mediocrity all the time."
https://x.com/postrat_dril/status/1779213291883016568

'/postrat_dril/status/1779213291883016568':31 'bench':8 'better':23 'day':10 'dril':2 'five':14 'hotel':16 'itll':20 'mediocr':25 'much':22 'next':18 'one':9 'postrat':1 'sleep':5 'star':15 'time':28 'x.com':30 'x.com/postrat_dril/status/1779213291883016568':29

@knowclarified: "bozo vs a-player dichotomy" https://twitter.com/knowclarified/status/1778901318049964339

'/knowclarified/status/1778901318049964339':10 'a-play':4 'bozo':2 'dichotomi':7 'knowclarifi':1 'player':6 'twitter.com':9 'twitter.com/knowclarified/status/1778901318049964339':8 'vs':3

@nat_sharpe_ : "post-Elon twitter is worse than it was but better than it would have become" https://twitter.com/nat_sharpe_/status/1778938663961079889

'/nat_sharpe_/status/1778938663961079889':21 'becom':18 'better':13 'elon':5 'nat':1 'post':4 'post-elon':3 'sharp':2 'twitter':6 'twitter.com':20 'twitter.com/nat_sharpe_/status/1778938663961079889':19 'wors':8 'would':16

@neil_chilson "Targeted advertising is an enormous benefit to humanity with almost no downsides." https://twitter.com/neil_chilson/status/1778960298625401244

'/neil_chilson/status/1778960298625401244':17 'advertis':4 'almost':12 'benefit':8 'chilson':2 'downsid':14 'enorm':7 'human':10 'neil':1 'target':3 'twitter.com':16 'twitter.com/neil_chilson/status/1778960298625401244':15

Nemo: To dismiss bay-area rationalists, you have to explain why they were so early on AI, crypto, glp-1 agonists, prediction markets, psychedelics, etc. https://twitter.com/thecaptain_nemo/status/1778854143450657269

'-1':21 '/thecaptain_nemo/status/1778854143450657269':29 'agonist':22 'ai':18 'area':6 'bay':5 'bay-area':4 'crypto':19 'dismiss':3 'earli':16 'etc':26 'explain':11 'glp':20 'market':24 'nemo':1 'predict':23 'psychedel':25 'rationalist':7 'twitter.com':28 'twitter.com/thecaptain_nemo/status/1778854143450657269':27

Kamil Pabis: Wanting to increase fertility instead of longevity as a means to maintain the population is dehumanizing because it treats people as replaceable deprecating tools. https://twitter.com/Aging_Scientist/status/1777587853330993537

'/aging_scientist/status/1777587853330993537':29 'dehuman':18 'deprec':25 'fertil':6 'increas':5 'instead':7 'kamil':1 'longev':9 'maintain':14 'mean':12 'pabi':2 'peopl':22 'popul':16 'replac':24 'tool':26 'treat':21 'twitter.com':28 'twitter.com/aging_scientist/status/1777587853330993537':27 'want':3

Plasma Ballin': Homestuck is good, actually. https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1779349502664520125

'/plasmaballin/status/1779349502664520125':9 'actual':6 'ballin':2 'good':5 'homestuck':3 'plasma':1 'twitter.com':8 'twitter.com/plasmaballin/status/1779349502664520125':7

Eliezer Yudkowsky: "I rarely practice that art, but I admit there's an art to saying things without saying them...." https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1741680303436108117

'/esyudkowsky/status/1741680303436108117':23 'admit':10 'art':7,14 'eliez':1 'practic':5 'rare':4 'say':16,19 'thing':17 'twitter.com':22 'twitter.com/esyudkowsky/status/1741680303436108117':21 'without':18 'yudkowski':2

Kimberly Edwards 74324: ░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░ https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/who-is-behind-all-the-pussy-in-bio-porn-spam-on-x.html

'/intelligencer/article/who-is-behind-all-the-pussy-in-bio-porn-spam-on-x.html':16 '74324':3 'b':11 'd':6 'e':7 'edward':2 'kimber':1 'n':4,10 'nymag.com':15 'nymag.com/intelligencer/article/who-is-behind-all-the-pussy-in-bio-porn-spam-on-x.html':14 'o':13 'u':5

@ilex_ulmus: "ghosting is often the kindest way to reject someone" https://twitter.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1779403388016558186

'/ilex_ulmus/status/1779403388016558186':14 'ghost':3 'ilex':1 'kindest':7 'often':5 'reject':10 'someon':11 'twitter.com':13 'twitter.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1779403388016558186':12 'ulmus':2 'way':8

@algekalipso "Zero Alcohol parties are more fun - I'd rather be at a place where people are liberally using 2C-B, 2C-I, MDMA, MDA, LSD... than taking shots" [see tweet] https://twitter.com/algekalipso/status/1779361048187027932

'/algekalipso/status/1779361048187027932':36 '2c':21,24 '2c-b':20 '2c-i':23 'alcohol':3 'algekalipso':1 'b':22 'd':9 'fun':7 'liber':18 'lsd':28 'mda':27 'mdma':26 'parti':4 'peopl':16 'place':14 'rather':10 'see':32 'shot':31 'take':30 'tweet':33 'twitter.com':35 'twitter.com/algekalipso/status/1779361048187027932':34 'use':19 'zero':2

Chris Williamson "the four most overrated things in the world..." https://twitter.com/ChrisWillx/status/1763202475040059764

'/chriswillx/status/1763202475040059764':13 'chris':1 'four':4 'overr':6 'thing':7 'twitter.com':12 'twitter.com/chriswillx/status/1763202475040059764':11 'williamson':2 'world':10

Tyler Alterman: "man's best friend is anxiously attached" https://twitter.com/TylerAlterman/status/1779594861974286630

'/tyleralterman/status/1779594861974286630':12 'alterman':2 'anxious':8 'attach':9 'best':5 'friend':6 'man':3 'twitter.com':11 'twitter.com/tyleralterman/status/1779594861974286630':10 'tyler':1

Stefan Schubert: Janan Ganesh on "the myth of the second chance"

"The self-help industry suggests all mistakes in life are retrievable. Middle age teaches us otherwise."

Yes.
https://x.com/stefanfschubert/status/1779596527469494672

'/stefanfschubert/status/1779596527469494672':32 'age':25 'chanc':11 'ganesh':4 'help':15 'industri':16 'janan':3 'life':21 'middl':24 'mistak':19 'myth':7 'otherwis':28 'retriev':23 'schubert':2 'second':10 'self':14 'self-help':13 'stefan':1 'suggest':17 'teach':26 'us':27 'x.com':31 'x.com/stefanfschubert/status/1779596527469494672':30 'yes':29

@roberts30978934: "The idea of libertarianism can only exist well after society establishes gov law and order, and religion for a common moral thread." (see full tweet) https://twitter.com/RobertS30978934/status/1780016007249027331

'/roberts30978934/status/1780016007249027331':29 'common':21 'establish':12 'exist':8 'full':25 'gov':13 'idea':3 'law':14 'libertarian':5 'moral':22 'order':16 'religion':18 'roberts30978934':1 'see':24 'societi':11 'thread':23 'tweet':26 'twitter.com':28 'twitter.com/roberts30978934/status/1780016007249027331':27 'well':9

Marko Jukic: "Europeans aren't poor. They are illiquid. Much of Europe's wealth is stored in safe streets, nice parks, public transit, "free" healthcare, etc." https://twitter.com/mmjukic/status/1779826873528185059

'/mmjukic/status/1779826873528185059':29 'aren':4 'etc':26 'europ':12 'european':3 'free':24 'healthcar':25 'illiquid':9 'jukic':2 'marko':1 'much':10 'nice':20 'park':21 'poor':6 'public':22 'safe':18 'store':16 'street':19 'transit':23 'twitter.com':28 'twitter.com/mmjukic/status/1779826873528185059':27 'wealth':14

@realpjpaul: "Trump didn’t do anything that every other former President has done. None of the others were charged. Joe Biden engaged in the exact same conduct, only worse..." https://twitter.com/RealPJPaul/status/1780070309330055251

'/realpjpaul/status/1780070309330055251':32 'anyth':6 'biden':21 'charg':19 'conduct':27 'didn':3 'done':13 'engag':22 'everi':8 'exact':25 'former':10 'joe':20 'none':14 'other':17 'presid':11 'realpjpaul':1 'trump':2 'twitter.com':31 'twitter.com/realpjpaul/status/1780070309330055251':30 'wors':29

@sentientist: "settle for Mr. Good Enough; it's rare for any book for women to tell the truth: options shrink with age, pickiness reflects an entitlement most can't afford, many regret not marrying" (see tweet) https://bit.ly/3JmyFUI

'/3jmyfui':39 'afford':30 'age':22 'bit.ly':38 'bit.ly/3jmyfui':37 'book':12 'enough':6 'entitl':26 'good':5 'mani':31 'marri':34 'mr':4 'option':19 'picki':23 'rare':9 'reflect':24 'regret':32 'see':35 'sentientist':1 'settl':2 'shrink':20 'tell':16 'truth':18 'tweet':36 'women':14

O.W. Root: "Dogs are a sign of society's decadence..."
https://x.com/NecktieSalvage/status/1780036928135454929

'/necktiesalvage/status/1780036928135454929':13 'decad':10 'dog':3 'o.w':1 'root':2 'sign':6 'societi':8 'x.com':12 'x.com/necktiesalvage/status/1780036928135454929':11

Aella: "you do not need a soul to satisfy most men's sex drive" https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1780299235541307827

'/aella_girl/status/1780299235541307827':17 'aella':1 'drive':14 'men':11 'need':5 'satisfi':9 'sex':13 'soul':7 'twitter.com':16 'twitter.com/aella_girl/status/1780299235541307827':15

Roko: EA just means "Someone who if they were born in the 1900-1920 period probably would have been a communist" https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1781011396282483060

'-1920':14 '/rokomijic/status/1781011396282483060':24 '1900':13 'born':10 'communist':21 'ea':2 'mean':4 'period':15 'probabl':16 'roko':1 'someon':5 'twitter.com':23 'twitter.com/rokomijic/status/1781011396282483060':22 'would':17

Liz: "love this website. has improved my life immeasurably." https://twitter.com/inerati/status/1780806546785771941

'/inerati/status/1780806546785771941':12 'immeasur':9 'improv':6 'life':8 'liz':1 'love':2 'twitter.com':11 'twitter.com/inerati/status/1780806546785771941':10 'websit':4

VanillaOpinions: "you should have to pay for parking" https://twitter.com/vanillaopinions/status/1781174581199294611?t=jyoUGu5EzOFP9UEv3hFcWA&s=19

'/vanillaopinions/status/1781174581199294611?t=jyougu5ezofp9uev3hfcwa&s=19':11 'park':8 'pay':6 'twitter.com':10 'twitter.com/vanillaopinions/status/1781174581199294611?t=jyougu5ezofp9uev3hfcwa&s=19':9 'vanillaopinion':1