Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by 

Climate

2023

Tomek's 🟡 specials

Science

New Year's Resolutions 2024

 is a new team at OpenAI attempting to solve the alignment problem within 4 years. 

If the team believes they have succeeded in this goal of "solv[ing] the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years" by their own estimation by July 5th, 2027, this market will resolve YES. If the team dissolves, reorganizes, or pursues a separate research direction unlikely to lead to a solution to the alignment problem, this resolves NO.

Technical AI Timelines

If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.

If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES.

If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.

AI risk

Existential Risk

AI Doom

Controversial markets

Lex Fridman

jskf's blocked markets

Counts as any event which results in unsafe levels of radiation leaking from the plant. Can clarify definitions in comments.

Predict the future

Play-money markets. Real-world accuracy.

Compete with your friends by betting on literally anything. Winnings go to charity. One-click sign up.