Resolves YES if there are four or more decisive (non-drawn) games in the classical (not including tiebreaks) portion of the World Chess Championship (

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024

), or NO if there are three or less. Also resolves NO if a new world chess championship does not start before 2025. (i.e. if the existing match is cancelled.)

Decisive game count for previous recent WCCs:

Green Bay Packers beat Detroit Lions (12/05) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Cleveland Browns beat Pittsburgh Steelers (12/08) 1:00 PM (CBS)

New Orleans Saints beat New York Giants (12/08) 1:00 PM (FOX)

New York Jets beat Miami Dolphins (12/08) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Tennessee Titans (12/08) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Atlanta Falcons beat Minnesota Vikings (12/08) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Carolina Panthers beat Philadelphia Eagles (12/08) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Las Vegas Raiders beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12/08) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals (12/08) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Chicago Bears beat San Francisco 49ers (12/08) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Buffalo Bills beat Los Angeles Rams (12/08) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Los Angeles Chargers beat Kansas City Chiefs (12/08) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Cincinnati Bengals beat Dallas Cowboys (12/09) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

After losing to Liverpool at home, United have a -3 GD. This market resolves to yes if they have a goal difference of at least 1 in the 2024 calendar year portion of 24-25 Premier League season (around half the season).

The World Chess Championship 2024 will be a chess match to determine the World Chess Champion. It will be played between the defending champion, Ding Liren from China, and the challenger, Gukesh D from India.

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

NFC or AFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game*

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

 For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Team change in top 6 super bowl favorites by 12/11 (Lions, Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Ravens, Packers)

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

Josh Allen MVP Odds Improve By 12/11 (Currently: -225)

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

 Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 340 yards and loses

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

 LA teams finish with a better record than NY teams

Any 400 yard passer (https://tinyurl.com/400Yarder)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* https://tinyurl.com/highestgame

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

 Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders

Add your own props related to Week Fourteen (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Fourteen finishes, but not later than that.

The slowest pit stop this year is 1:14.733 for Valtteri Bottas in Bahrain.

https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2024/races/1229/bahrain/pit-stop-summary.html

This will resolve yes if there is a pit stop reported on 

 on the 10th of December 2024 for the 2024 season that is > 1:14.733

This will resolve no if there is any other outcome (season is called off, all other pit stops are quicker, another 1:14.733 pit stop etc)

A model with name containing ‘GPT-4.5’ or ‘GPT-5’ is revealed.

New paid tier of ChatGPT, costing >$25/month, revealed

Reveal a model with 1,000,000+ context length

Something that Gary Marcus reacts positively to (sentiment analyzed by ChatGPT)

Agent model (can perform virtual tasks) revealed

Chain of thought on image tokens / visual scratchpad

Image generation with reasoning / inference-time scaling

A model called GPT-5 (or similar) is released

An interpretability-based paper or product

Cursor/Copilot style IDE tool for pair programming 

An AI-rendered video game (see my recent market for details)

A second model (besides o1) with a number X in the name is revealed/released on day X

Code sandbox for Canvas with code execution

ChatGPT Projects (similar to Claude Projects)

Something as significant as the September o1 announcement (as per a poll)

Something as significant as the Sora announcement (as per a poll)

Something as significant as the launch of ChatGPT (as per a poll)

A second, more advanced version of Sora is revealed

OpenAI has just announced the “12 Days of OpenAI”, a series of 12 livestreams with new announcements. What will they announce during this?

https://x.com/openai/status/1864328928267259941?s=46

“Released” = available to some random members of the public, or an announcement that it will be available before December 31

“Revealed” = the thing is shown to exist, but not necessarily available to the public

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:

Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.

OpenAI’s page announcing their crazy new AI video model

. They say, “If we deploy the model in an OpenAI product,” which makes me wonder if they will deploy it and, if yes, when. 

 if the model becomes available to any users, whether paid or free, but won’t count if it’s invite-only.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated)

 if Sora is released as part of OpenAI's 

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

OpenAI's original definition for AGI is as follows:

Here is a diagram illustrating the governance structure of OpenAI:

The following is a quote from the original post by OpenAI, 

An action that would "hint at" OpenAI achieving AGI would be the exclusion of a specific state of the art AI system from IP licenses and other commercial terms with Microsoft while their partnership with Microsoft remains more or less the same structurally (although the composition might change). 

Same market for a longer time-frame is below:

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

All definitions and rules outlined by the market creator (@Lion) apply solely to the Mana version of this question. I can only address questions related to the Mana version. For  questions about the Sweepstakes market, please contact Manifold Markets directly.

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