San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks (10/10) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Chicago Bears (10/13) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Washington Commanders beat Baltimore Ravens (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Arizona Cardinals beat Green Bay Packers (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Houston Texans beat New England Patriots (10/13) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cleveland Browns beat Philadelphia Eagles (10/13) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos (10/13) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders (10/13) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers (10/13) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Detroit Lions beat Dallas Cowboys (10/13) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Cincinnati Bengals beat New York Giants (10/13) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets (10/14) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Oakland A’s [even if they no longer play in Oakland]

At the conclusion of the 2024 MLB postseason, who will win the World Series?

Note: Regardless if teams move cities during the 2023-2024 offseason, your vote for them will still count.

 a game as a pitcher in the playoffs, for the Dodgers, resolves yes. I'll resolve within a day of the start. Market will remain open until the playoffs are over or the Dodgers are knocked out. No new answers will be added. Openers who aren't otherwise on the list will be resolved as "someone else", even if they pitch less than an inning.

The 14th annual League of Legends World Championship will be held from September 25, 2024 to November 2, 2024.

This market will resolve to the winner of the tournament.  If the tournament is not completed by December 31, 2024, then the market will resolve to 

 category was used during the qualification phase when some teams had yet to qualify.  The market will never resolve to 

; however if a team is disqualified and replaced by another team, that new team will be added and be split out of Other.

San Francisco 49ers -3.5 @ Seattle Seahawks

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @ Chicago Bears (London)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ New Orleans Saints

Cleveland Browns +8.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Commanders +6.5 @ Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 @ New York Giants

Which teams will cover the spread in Week 6 of the 2024/25 NFL season? Spread lines taken from ESPN this week.

If there is a push, it will resolve as 50/50.

Let me know in the comments if you have any advice on how to improve this kind of a market 

(maybe closing off the market before the first game, so no in-play betting? and so on)

 - if there is enough interest, I will consider making it a Plus market.

Baltimore Ravens +2.50 @ Kansas City Chiefs

3 chinese teams win on the opening day of Swiss stage

An NA team goes 0-3 (to the 0-2 bracket and out) in Swiss Stage

0 Western or Wildcard teams in knockout stage of worlds

2+ games in GEN vs HLE have a team get Dragon soul

As opposed to the tournament running market this market will host questions on individual matches and players and teams.

Match markets are always about the upcoming matches the teams have, it doesn't matter if they have a rematch later on in the tournament.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

 of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, & Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. It resolves 

Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

A car will be shown without a steering wheel

People (non Tesla employees) will ride in a car with no human driver

The unreleased Roadster will be on location

A new Tesla car will have an unpainted stainless steel exterior (that isn't the cybertruck)

Ride hailing app will be available for download

Optimus robot will be walking around where non-Tesla employees can interact with it

more than three Optimus robots will be shown

a mother of any of Elon's children will attend

Elon will express support for Donald Trump

More than one new car model will be announced 

Publicly available autonomous rides will be announced 

McDonald's fast chargers partnership announced

Elon will say something negative about Kamala Harris

another car company will announce licensing Tesla FSD

any speech-activated technology will be demoed

any non-car non-humanoid robot will be announced

a car that only seats two people will be demoed

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:

If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper. 

 not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists. 

I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath. 

Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.

If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.

In a recent Twitter exchange, the VC Keith Rabois called Nate Silver a "buffoon" and claimed that the "minimum" Trump win in FL is 8 points (and 10-14 is "more likely"). In reply, Nate challenged him to a $100,000 bet. 

This market resolves YES if Trump wins Florida by >8 points, and NO otherwise.

The Kamala Harris campaign soon after the first ABC debate, asked the Trump campaign for a second debate, will Donald Trump agree to a second debate?

Resolves yes if there is a second Kamala Vs Donald debate.

Will Kamala Harris flip a state in the 2024 presidential election?

Flipping a state means she wins a state not won by Joe Biden in 2020.

Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count. For example, if Kamala Harris wins Maine's second district, that doesn't resolve this question.

This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.

If for whatever reason the Democratic nominee changes this question will be about the new nominee.

This is a derivative question; it will resolve exactly according to these questions:

It will resolve yes if those questions resolve in different ways. That is, if Trump wins and Elon stays out of jail, or Trump loses and Elon goes to jail, this will resolve Yes. If the questions resolve in the same way, this question will resolve No.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election. 

Resolution will wait until there is an overwhelming consensus, based on a consensus of credible reporting such as the Associated Press.

This will be Resolved two weeks after Hurricane Milton has been downgraded below a Tropical Depression based on which storm has a higher estimated total cost of damages, 

If there’s a range of damages, this will look at the top of the range for both storms. If this is a tie, it will Resolve NO.

Kinetically, i.e. with a missile/bomb of some sort.

Will resolve to yes if he issues any pardon or commutation of sentence. 

Resolves YES if Ukraine controls <10 km² of Kursk oblast for 1 week continuously. 

Trade on politics & more