IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🤖 AI

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

, players control a customizable character, often referred to as the "cube," as it automatically moves forward through various geometric obstacles and hazards. The objective is to guide the character safely to the end of each level while avoiding obstacles such as spikes, saws, and other traps. The gameplay requires precise timing and quick reflexes to jump, fly, and flip through the levels.

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:

If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper. 

 not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists. 

I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath. 

Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.

Science

superconductivity

LK-99

This market is a placeholder for the first round of the Manifold G.O.A.T. tournament, whose contestants will be determined through related markets, that I'll link below.

The purpose of this series of markets is to determine who Manifold thinks is the "Greatest of All Time" (G.O.A.T.). It will consist of contestants nominated in four categories:

1. I'm limiting this to only people whose existence is documented in historical records, so no Mitochondrial Eve.

2. I'll keep the seeds hidden, because I think that might bias peoples' votes.

3. I'll close the market at a random time on its close date, to try and reduce the odds of a whale timing their bet to swing the result.

The results of each contest will be determined by a poll, which will be posted after the markets close. Most markets will run from Sunday-Thursday, and the polls from Friday-Saturday.

The scheduled close date for each market (and poll) of the contest is below:

🎨 Culture

🧪 Science

🏦 Economics

🗳️ Politics

2023-12-09 at 3 PM in Foxborough, MA. Line: Army -2.5.

🏟️ Sports

⚽ 🏈 Football

College Football

Patriots are looking for a new Head Coach

🏈 NFL

Who will be the next NBA head coach to be fired? 

8th match of the ODI World Cup: Pakistan v Sri Lanka, 4:30 AM ET on October 10th, 2023

Cricket World Cup 2023

Cricket

Premier League 2023-2024

Sports

The cybersecurity strategy published this week covers fiscal years 2024 through 2027 and its primary mission is to ensure the generation, reliability and preservation of warfighting capabilities by protecting operational capabilities, sensitive information, and product integrity.

🇷🇺 Russia

⚔️ Wars

🌍 World

Cybersecurity

Pentagon

Windows

🌐 Internet

Big Tech

Microsoft

💵 Finance

📈 Stocks

The Market resolves the Number of Days into May when Starship launches (from 1 to 50)

May 2st resolves as 2 and so on up until June 19th.

If Starship launches before May 1st, it will resolve as 1.

If it launches after June 19th, the market will resolve as 50.

🚀 Spacex

Starship Launch Party

Rockets

#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

2024 US Presidential Election

The Life of Biden

Global Macro

Politics

US Politics

Gerontocracy

🔦Subsidy Spotlight

2023 Market of the Year Candidates

If Donald Trump picks a VP by May 3 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

👴 Trump

🐘 Republican Party

2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution.

If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, that is not sufficient for resolution, until formally selected as nominee.

👴🏼 Joe Biden

Speaker of the House election

🏛 118th Congress

This market pertains to the qualified candidates for Oregon's US Representative, 6th District, as officially listed by the Oregon Secretary of State [0]. Major Party Candidates have until 12 March and Minor Party / Individual Electors have until 27 August to file for office; options may be subject to change. Coverage extends across both the Primary Election (21 May) and the General Election (5 Nov), offering a comprehensive view of the electoral process.

 if candidates are eliminated in the Primaries, with the remaining options resolving post-General Election upon complete vote tally. Write-In candidates are represented by 

 and will resolve according. In case of an automatic recount (triggered if the vote difference is under 0.002% as per Oregon Law [1]), the market will follow the recount results. If certified results face a later recount, a new subsequent market will be established.

I do not bet in markets I create to avoid motivated reasoning. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.

U.S. Congress

Oregon

US Congressional Elections 2024

2024 Republican Primaries

US State Government

2024 Democratic Primaries

This market resolves Yes if a challenge to this ruling or a very similar ruling enters into the SCOTUS case queue before the end of 2025. After that, the hearing can occur at a later date, or the case can be dropped.

SCOTUS

Supreme Court

🏳️‍🌈 LGBTQIA+

'r':4 'r-sc':3 'sc':5 'scott':2 'senat':6 'tim':1

'elis':1 'ny':5 'r':4 'r-ni':3 'repres':6 'stefanik':2

'governor':5 'kristi':1 'noem':2 'r':3 'sd':4

'd':3 'governor':5 'gretchen':1 'michigan':4 'whitmer':2

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")

This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see 

I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see 

(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)

If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an 

. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.

In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.

COVID

COVID origins 

Past Events

Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest.

The "exploitation purposes" prerequisite needs to (more or less) be ruled to relate to the sex work that the trafficked persons performed or were intended to perform.

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of sex trafficking?

 → Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of sex/human trafficking? May 18, 5:41am: human (sex) trafficking

Changes to the question are not intended to be material.

Wokism

, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post 

 is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

LessWrong Annual Review

Resolves YES if I am accepted to a single camp in which applications are not objective (i.e. MOP does not count, since acceptance criteria are objective). Resolves N/A if I don't end up applying to any camps after today (camps I have already applied to and gotten results from do not count). Description will be gradually updated with camps I apply to.