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Jack
Crystal
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
53%
Kamala Harris
Yes
No
Open options
46%
Donald Trump
Yes
No
Open options
0.2%
Joe Biden
Yes
No
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0.2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Yes
No
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See 19 more answers
7573
แน2.3m
Victor Li
Plus
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
25%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
2896
แน11k
jackson polack
Plus
First Trump / Harris Debate prop bets
3%
Polling after suggests Trump won (538, 50% if tie)
Yes
No
Open options
40%
Harris mentions her history/work of prosecuting sexual offenders
Yes
No
Open options
96%
Harris laughs for more than two seconds continuously
Yes
No
Open options
6%
Harris laughs for more than five seconds continuously
Yes
No
Open options
See 168 more answers
1368
แน170k
Nicola Wilson
Plus
Will there be conclusive evidence of a Haitian immigrant in Ohio eating a pet or wild animal before 2025?
24%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
193
แน10k
Manifold Politics
Premium
Will Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Election?
22%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
921
แน100k
Maxim Lott
Plus
Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025?
16%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
414
แน10k
memestiny
Plus
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking?
59%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
2993
แน10k
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