903124's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -15.87
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when 903124 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?YESṀ350
- Will the words "GPT-4" be on a front page of the physical New York Times paper before May 1 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Credit Suisse be acquired by another bank by April 3rd?YESṀ100