Kitkat's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.16
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Kitkat bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
60%
80%
90%
95%
- Will Destiny's video "HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT TO ME!? Zherka Unsubs From Aba After He Said This" reach 80k views or more by 3/01 9 A.M.?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny's video "HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT TO ME!? Zherka Unsubs From Aba After He Said This" reach 80k views or more by 3/01 9 A.M.?YESṀ100
- Will Ethereum's price be above $1600 on February 28th?YESṀ25