On the specified dates, I will use @FairlyRandom to draw one or two numbers between 1 and 100. (To keep things interesting, I will draw two numbers on the final day.) At least one of these five numbers will be the median. The day on which it is drawn will resolve as YES or a percentage if multiple days apply.
Example:
Day 1: 30
Day 2: 59
Day 3: 99
Day 4: 30, 27
The median is 30, both Day 1 and Day 4 resolve as 50%, the other option resolve as NO.
I will aim to draw the numbers between 11:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on the specified days. I might run some tests and will give a heads-up in the comments.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ231 | |
| 2 | Ṁ100 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 |
@ML12d1 I don't love that you are trading on this market as you draw numbers. Really gives you a distinct advantage, and takes the fun out of things. I know it's not against the rules of Manifold, but I think I'll opt out of this market going forward.
Fair enough, thanks for the honest feedback! I usually try to only move the odds a bit, like going from 20% to 17% as in your example. Most of the movement to the current 7% came from other traders:
But I get your point about my advantage and will think about what to change in the future, like waiting longer and placing smaller bets.