Will I get to a 169 prediction streak?
closes Sep 5

My current prediction streak is 69. Here is the market on me getting from 39 to 69.

Will I successfully get to 169 though? Resolves YES if within the next 3.5 months there is 169 next to that fire emoji and NO otherwise. (Slightly confused how manifold forgiveness days work, so I am adding a bit of buffer to 100 days.

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XComhghall avatar
XComhghall (edited)

3 forgiveness points, for example, mean that you can miss 3 days, consecutive or scattered. Your streak remains unchanged when you miss 3 days, and you accumulate more days to miss, for each month you do not miss a single day.

How to check your forgiveness points. I deduce that you have a 86-day streak on 5/23. I wonder how many forgiveness points you have.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistis predicting YES at 81%

@XComhghall Yes, I still have 3 forgiveness points! If I understand correctly, I still haven't missed a single day.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistbought Ṁ10 of YES

@XComhghall Also, your calculation of the current streak length is right. I currently have a 86-day streak.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall (edited)

@42irrationalist Yes. That means you have not missed a single day from March to May. You could miss up to 3 days, on which your streak remains unchanged, i.e., does not reset, decrease, or increase.

Once you reach June 1, you'll have 4 forgiveness points.

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