Александр Мельников's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.24
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Александр Мельников bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?NOṀ1,730
- Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?YESṀ209
- Will there be an serious coup attempt in Russia aganist Putin (successful or unsuccessful) by the end of 2023NOṀ200
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%