As the 2024 South Korean legislative elections approach, the political landscape is marked by significant challenges and developments that could influence the outcome, particularly for the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). The elections are set against a backdrop of low approval rates for the ruling People Power Party (PPP) and internal dissent within both major parties, indicating a fractured political scene. This election is particularly crucial as it serves as a midterm assessment of President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration, with the PPP and the DPK grappling for dominance in the National Assembly.

Recent events have heightened the stakes, such as the attempted assassination of DPK leader Lee Jae-myung on January 2, 2024, which has added a layer of drama and uncertainty to the electoral battle. The DPK, holding a strong majority in the National Assembly, faces a critical challenge with its leader's legal troubles potentially affecting its campaign and public image.

Criteria

The outcome of this market will be determined by the official number of seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) in the National Assembly as a result of the 2024 South Korean legislative elections. The official results must be declared by the National Election Commission of the Republic of Korea and widely reported by credible news outlets.

- Resolution Date: The market will resolve after the final official results are announced, which could be several days after the election day due to vote counting and potential legal challenges.

- Resolution Source: The resolution will be based on the official announcement by the National Election Commission of the Republic of Korea. In the case of discrepancies between sources or delayed official results, the market may consider reports from major South Korean news agencies such as KBS, SBS, or MBC as interim sources for resolution.

- Special Considerations:

- If there are changes in the number of seats due to post-election legal challenges, recounts, or any other official adjustments, the market will be resolved based on the final official count as of one month after the election day.

- In the event of a coalition or a merger involving the DPK before the resolution date, the market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the DPK and its coalition partners or the new merged entity.