Open source Sora 2-level model before 2027? | Manifold

Open source Sora 2-level model before 2027?

4

100Ṁ125

Dec 31

84%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves YES if before 11:59pm UTC Dec 31 2026, an open weight / open source model releases that is as good at video generation as Sora 2. I will resolve this based on my own opinion, however broad media coverage calling a model "Sora 2 level" would also suffice.

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will OpenAI retire the Sora app in 2026?

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2027

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Related questions

Will OpenAI retire the Sora app in 2026?

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2027

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy