Open source Sora 2-level model before 2027?
4
100Ṁ1252026
84%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if before 11:59pm UTC Dec 31 2026, an open weight / open source model releases that is as good at video generation as Sora 2. I will resolve this based on my own opinion, however broad media coverage calling a model "Sora 2 level" would also suffice.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
When will an open-source AI video model comparable to Sora from OpenAI be released?
How many parameters does the OpenAI Sora model unveiled in February 2024 have?
What will happen to Sora OpenAi by the end of 2025?
[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2027
9.3
What product will OpenAI release next (After Sora)?
Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
30% chance
If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?
45% chance