You think something is 30% likely but a friend thinks 70%. To what does that change your opinion?
47
Never closes
Less than 30%
30%
Somewhere between 30% and 50%
50%
Somewhere between 50% and 70%
70%
More than 70%
The question is too unclear to answer
There is no fact of the matter
Agnostic/undecided
Other
There is an event that you think is 30% likely to happen. But then you learn that a friend of yours thinks it is 70% likely to happen but do not learn his reasons. The friend is equally as reasonable, intelligent, educated and experienced at probabilistic forecasting as yourself. How likely do you think the event is to happen now?
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