There is an event that you think is 30% likely to happen. But then you learn that a friend of yours thinks it is 70% likely to happen but do not learn his reasons. The friend is equally as reasonable, intelligent, educated and experienced at probabilistic forecasting as yourself. How likely do you think the event is to happen now?
1,000
3.00>The friend is equally as reasonable, intelligent, educated and experienced at probabilistic forecasting as yourself.
Almost missed this line, which changes the answer significantly! I don't have any friends who are as reasonable, intelligent, educated, and experienced at probabilistic forecasting as I am* so my instinct was "between 30 and 50 (but if it's my friend's area of expertise maybe higher)". But taking this assumption, yeah, it should be 50%.
*You think I'm bragging but maybe it's just that I don't have any friends
50% but I larp as 30% to try to get a productive conversation going where maybe we can get to the bottom of who is right/why we disagree
@Seeker Let’s say the friend knows as much about the topic at hand as you. A neutral third party would find you two equally credible on the question.
@1941159478 Well, I tend to have a superiority complex where if both I and my friend know equal, I think I can understand it better than he can with a little bit of googling and reading that most people dont even bother with. Unless I know he knows better than I do, I'm not going to change my opinion unless my friend offers some novel insight
@Seeker Yeah, totally understandable. As far as I understand there is an active debate in philosophy as well on whether and how sticking to your opinion like that is reasonable: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/disagreement/
Personally I lean more toward just going to 50% (or some other number if I thought they were either more or less credible than me on the question). But I’m interested what different people on Manifold think about the debate.