The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14209/twitter-ceo-succession-date/

The question will estimate when Elon Musk will be replaced as CEO of Twitter. See the link for detailed resolution criteria. In particular, this also gives us an estimate of whether Musk will still be CEO at the end of the year.

When the Metaculus question opens, this Manifold market will close and seven days later resolve PROB to the Metaculus "Community Prediction." This procedure is known as Reciprocal Scoring. Since Manifold incentivizes betting to the correct expected value, this is a proper scoring rule assuming Metaculus, which has a solid track record of good forecasts, is an unbiased estimator.

See also this market about the same question without the early resolution:

Close date updated to 2023-01-15 1:00 am