Which of these universities will accept my application for these programs?
resolved May 14
University of Ottawa: Computer Science (ORC)
Queen's University: Computing (BCmpH) (QD)
University of Waterloo: Mathematics (WM)
University of Toronto: Computer Science - St. George Campus (TAD)
University of Waterloo: Computer Science (WCS)

This market is part of cc6's Chance Me: https://manifold.markets/cc6/free-m250-for-high-schoolers-create#LwzIcosTIu6xIU9OjDPC. I modified the template based on what was applicable to my circumstances.

Intended Major

I am mainly applying for Computer Science (which "Computing" encompasses for Queen's), but there is also a Waterloo application for Mathematics.


Here are records for Grades 9-11, on myBluePrint:

My current Grade 12 semester has three courses:

  • SPH4U1: Physics
    Midterm 93%, Current 92.1%

  • MHF4U1: Advanced Functions

    Midterm 99%, Current 98.9%

  • ENG4U1: English
    Midterm 100%, Current 100%

Therefore, my current average for Grade 12 is 97%. I am planning on dropping SES4U1 next semester to have a spare again. I expect that my marks for ICS4U1, MCV4U1, and MDM4U1 will not be unusually low like my SPH4U1 is, so my Grade 12 average will rise by the end of semester 2. I currently don't plan to update this market with new grading information over time, though.

My current average across Grade 11 and 12 is 97.8%. My current average across all of high school is ~97.96%. (I may have made a typo when entering the data into qalculate, though. CBA to parse the plaintext formatting.)

AFAIK I haven't taken any standardized academic tests.


By "submitted", I am referring to the OUAC application.

  • I was born in and currently live in Ontario, Canada, which is where my high school is located.

  • I submitted "Prefer Not To Answer" for "Gender Identity". I listed my legal and preferred name as "Michael".

  • I submitted "White" for "With which ethnic group(s) do you identify?"

  • I submitted "Another religion or spiritual self-identity: Simulation Hypothesis" for "What is your religion and/or spiritual self-identity?"

  • I submitted "Asexual" for "How would you describe your sexual orientation?"

  • I submitted "Prefer not to answer" (yes, the checkbox was lowercase this time) for "Do you self-identify as a person with a disability and/or impairment?"

Extracurricular Information

Here are some activities I engage in.

  • Technology

    • Programming

    • Configuring programs on Arch Linux

    • Reading about ML on Twitter

    • Running a small Computer Science club at my high school

  • Studying Japanese, as well as more broadly engaging with Japanese media

  • Playing solo piano

  • Mathematics

    • Solving mathematics problems from e.g. AoPS textbooks

      • (Usually simple in terms of content but are usually constructed to focus on problem-solving ability rather than knowledge)

    • Light self-studying for fun, such as some basic differential calculus so that I could try manually implementing backpropagation and gradient descent

  • Miscellaneous fiction and non-fiction reading

  • Occasionally very casually playing Chess

That's basically it. I don't play sports or commit to much of any other social pursuits outside of school.


  • In Grade 11, I took the Waterloo Junior CCC (programming) and scored 75/75, which put me on the honour roll: https://cemc.uwaterloo.ca/contests/past_contests/2023/2023CCCResults.pdf. I also received a certificate of "distinction".

  • In Grade 11, I took the Waterloo Fermat contest (mathematics), and scored 108/150 points (~86th percentile). I received a certificate of distinction and a physical medal.

  • In Grade 12, I took the Waterloo CSMC (mathematics), and scored 36/60 points (~85th percentile). I haven't received the certificate yet, but IIRC I'm supposed to, because I thought the threshold was 75th. I'm not going to receive a medal, though: I know at least one student who did better than me in my grade at my school.

Any Other Information

I haven't taken any AP or honours classes, although AFAICT my high school doesn't offer them. I would consider taking Math or Computer Science if they were available.

I submitted my OUAC application on January 6th. Besides the programs listed in the market choices, I also had Toronto Metropolitan University: Computer Science (SAB), which accepted me on January 18th.

Both the University of Toronto and University of Waterloo require some supplemental writing, which I haven't completed yet, although I plan to complete both of them before the deadlines. FWIU a significant component of them will be explaining why I am supposedly extremely interested in their programs. I'm not a particular fan of the concept of university at all, so I may struggle to come up with something plausible for that. I also expect questions about leadership, volunteering, making the world a better place, etc. which I also doubt will go well.

Here are some excerpts of my writing from English classes, so you can predict my performance on those supplemental applications:

I don't remember when the final date is for university admission decisions in Ontario, so I'll leave the market closing date as 2024-07-01 for now, and then close it early.

I'm generally open to answering other questions if needed.

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve YES for the universities that the creator gets into, NO for the ones that the creator is rejected from. Resolves to 50% if the creator does not resolve it within one month of the close date and appears to be inactive.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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University of Waterloo: Computer Science (WCS)


University of Waterloo: Mathematics (WM)
University of Toronto: Computer Science - St. George Campus (TAD)

try bug bounty

@JohnSmithcf7b I made a submission to OpenAI's BugCrowd (rejected), and then I made a second one yesterday (without too much hope). A couple of years ago I found a decent bug in Google Workspace that I probably should have submitted. I'm not really skilled enough to be finding the particularly serious ones, though.

@12c498e DM me, I can give you some bug bounty tips

bought Ṁ10 University of Toront... NO

Adjustment factor?

bought Ṁ25 University of Waterl... YES

@JohnSmithcf7b I am currently attending "Sir William Mulock Secondary School" in Newmarket, Ontario. It's not listed in the PDF you linked, so I suppose I fall under the "Any Other Ontario Secondary School" option.

University of Ottawa: Computer Science (ORC)

BlueWizard413, DynamicConqueror891, Eirik, GloriousMaster447, GloriousPro636 are all alts of the same person? Don't ban me, Manifold; I didn't make those accounts.

@12c498e no, they are different people. I am doing a campaign on reddit to recruit more people, and this is the format of the randomly generated usernames

@cc6 From when I checked, all of them bet on this market and one other? If it was linked as part of the campaign, that would make sense.

ENG4U1 Final mark: 100%

I have finished my exams and they have been marked. So, I've received two of my final course marks. I'm not going to update the market description because that will require additional wording surrounding when I posted which update.

SPH4U1 Final mark: 94%
MHF4U1 Final mark: 99%

Queen's University: Computing (BCmpH) (QD)
bought Ṁ10 of University of Waterl... NO


please accept your offer

I can already imagine how good it's going to feel to turn all of these down.

bought Ṁ10 of University of Waterl... NO

@12c498e (As you can see, I did not buy YES to 100 before resolving. I will not make any trades after I see results.)

@12c498e ???????

@astyerche Which message are you replying to? In all three cases, I don't see the source of the confusion.

University of Toronto: Computer Science - St. George Campus (TAD)
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