Resolution Criteria

The market resolves to the National Olympic Committee (NOC) that wins the most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026. In case of a tie in gold medals, the country with the most silver medals wins, with most bronze medals as a further tiebreaker. If countries tie on both metrics, dead heat rules apply. Resolution will be based on official medal counts from the International Olympic Committee.

Background

Norway has finished on top of the medal tally for the last three Winter Olympics, winning the most medals in Beijing 2022 as predicted. Germany was the runner-up to Norway in the medal count in 2018 and 2022, typically picking up a bulk of their medals in the sliding sports—winning three of the four bobsled golds, all four luge golds and both gold medals in skeleton in 2022. At the 2022 Games in Beijing, the U.S. finished third in the medal count, behind first-place Norway and second-place Germany. The 2026 Winter Olympics are scheduled to feature 116 medal events in 16 disciplines, an increase of seven events and one discipline over Beijing 2022.