Prize Markets 

Israel-Gaza

Trump Trial

Starship Launch

Iran President

CNN Debate

"Not-E3" Game News

Lantern Bioworks

Trump VP

OpenAI

WWDC 2024

Taylor Swift

NBA Playoffs

Polling

Ilya

Close Races

Manifest

Twitter

WEWHF

Drake v Lamar

TikTok Ban

Legal Weed

One Piece

Music AI Race

TV Props

ACX 2024 

Hard Forkasts

Life in 2040

Trending Events Tournament 2024

🔮 Manifest

💙 Manifold

Manifest 2024

'episod':4 'least':2 'live':6 'manifold':5 'one':3

at least 3 people from the Manifest 2024 Special Guests list attend (non-Manifold employees)

'2024':8 '3':3 'attend':12 'employe':16 'guest':10 'least':2 'list':11 'manifest':7 'manifold':15 'non':14 'non-manifold':13 'peopl':4 'special':9

@strutheo teaches crane folding to at least 10 people

'10':8 'crane':3 'fold':4 'least':7 'peopl':9 'strutheo':1 'teach':2

someone sings a Manifold-inspired cover song at karaoke

'cover':7 'inspir':6 'karaok':10 'manifold':5 'manifold-inspir':4 'sing':2 'someon':1 'song':8

at least 2 "Memo Sessions" [per LessOnline: this is where someone has written a short essay ahead of time, a small group of people reads it and then has a Q&A with the author about the ideas in the essay.]

'2':3 'ahead':17 'author':35 'essay':16,41 'group':22 'idea':38 'least':2 'lessonlin':7 'memo':4 'peopl':24 'per':6 'q':31 'read':25 'session':5 'short':15 'small':21 'someon':11 'time':19 'written':13

at least 3 people co-author a Substack post

'3':3 'author':7 'co':6 'co-author':5 'least':2 'peopl':4 'post':10 'substack':9

a group creates an art project/installation for Manifest

'art':5 'creat':3 'group':2 'manifest':8 'project/installation':6

there is a surprise (previously unannounced) guest that hosts a workshop or Q&A

'guest':7 'host':9 'previous':5 'q':13 'surpris':4 'unannounc':6 'workshop':11

major US presidential election news breaks

'break':6 'elect':4 'major':1 'news':5 'presidenti':3 'us':2

@etirabys hosts a session of Conflict Improv

'conflict':6 'etirabi':1 'host':2 'improv':7 'session':4

"Something" happens - https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-permanent

'/joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-permanent':5 'happen':2 'manifold.markets':4 'manifold.markets/joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-permanent':3 'someth':1

Someone's toddler participates in a trolley problem game

'game':9 'particip':4 'problem':8 'someon':1 'toddler':3 'trolley':7

bingo

Prop Bets

'core':5 'meet':1 'member':7 'team':6 'two':2

'5':2 'bird':6 'see':1 'type':4 'uniqu':3

I trade mana on physical goods or services

'good':6 'mana':3 'physic':5 'servic':8 'trade':2

i cry at least once (related to manifest/pain/sadness not just allergies)

'allergi':11 'cri':2 'least':4 'manifest/pain/sadness':8 'relat':6

'ai':9 'get':1 'human':8 'pin':10 'r1':6 'rabbit':5 'tri':3

'carter':5 'jimmi':4 'pin':6 'sell':1 'someon':2

Meta-markets

Manifold Users

A current or former OpenAI CEO will attend

'attend':8 'ceo':6 'current':2 'former':4 'openai':5

Someone will make at least 10,000 mana they wouldn't have made if they didn't attend

'000':7 '10':6 'attend':18 'didn':16 'least':5 'made':13 'make':3 'mana':8 'someon':1 'wouldn':10

'1':3 'episod':4 'least':2 'live':7 'manifold':6

'2':3 'episod':4 'least':2 'live':7 'manifold':6

Someone makes a new meme shirt to follow up "Robin Handsome"

'follow':8 'handsom':11 'make':2 'meme':5 'new':4 'robin':10 'shirt':6 'someon':1

Someone walks 50,000 steps in one day while attending the conference

'000':4 '50':3 'attend':10 'confer':12 'day':8 'one':7 'someon':1 'step':5 'walk':2

'chris':5 'fli':2 'someon':1 'strutheo':6

at least three children present in one day

'children':4 'day':8 'least':2 'one':7 'present':5 'three':3

A guest of honor is announced, then it turns out they can't make it, then it turns out they can make it after all

'announc':6 'guest':2 'honor':4 'make':14,22 'turn':9,18

Manifold site outage happens during the conference 

'confer':7 'happen':4 'manifold':1 'outag':3 'site':2

Major US presidential election news breaks

Users @NcyRocks and @NathanpmYoung attend and recreate the Spider-Man meme

'attend':5 'man':11 'meme':12 'nathanpmyoung':4 'ncyrock':2 'recreat':7 'spider':10 'spider-man':9 'user':1

Manifold launches a new feature during the conference 

'confer':8 'featur':5 'launch':2 'manifold':1 'new':4

Manifold.love friend version created just for conference attendees 

'attende':8 'confer':7 'creat':4 'friend':2 'manifold.love':1 'version':3

Someone wears a full body fursuit publicly 

'bodi':5 'full':4 'fursuit':6 'public':7 'someon':1 'wear':2

A crown in given to the attendee with the highest all time profit

'attende':7 'crown':2 'given':4 'highest':10 'profit':13 'time':12

Someone gets a manifold crane logo tattoo

'crane':5 'get':2 'logo':6 'manifold':4 'someon':1 'tattoo':7

Someone will sneak in a mid-sized inflatable (min 3’x3’x3’)

'3':11 'inflat':9 'mid':7 'mid-siz':6 'min':10 'size':8 'sneak':3 'someon':1 'x3':12,13

Presenter goes to use a whiteboard but all of the markers are bad/don’t work 

'bad/don':13 'goe':2 'marker':11 'present':1 'use':4 'whiteboard':6 'work':15

'20':3 'karaok':7 'least':2 'peopl':4 'sing':5

'2':7 'live':4 'min':6 'music':5 'peopl':8

Aella will attend with Bet on Love winner

'aella':1 'attend':3 'bet':5 'love':7 'winner':8

Polymarket (the company) will "out meme" manifold (the company)

'compani':3,9 'manifold':7 'meme':6 'polymarket':1

There will be a "freeze flashmob" with at least 15 participants 

'15':10 'flashmob':6 'freez':5 'least':9 'particip':11

Someone will be wearing an apple vision pro while talking to a group of people

'appl':6 'group':13 'peopl':15 'pro':8 'someon':1 'talk':10 'vision':7 'wear':4

Nerf gun battle (>= 5 gun wielding participants) 

'5':4 'battl':3 'gun':2,5 'nerf':1 'particip':7 'wield':6

Someone will be in undercover cosplay, where they will be in costume of a character but no one will notice the first day with a dramatic reveal on the second day of who they really are

'charact':15 'cosplay':6 'costum':12 'day':23,31 'dramat':26 'first':22 'notic':20 'one':18 'realli':35 'reveal':27 'second':30 'someon':1 'undercov':5

'100':5 'digit':6 'pi':3 'recit':2 'someon':1

presenter will break into song during their talk

Full-size cardboard cutout of manifold celebrity is available to take pictures with

'avail':10 'cardboard':4 'celebr':8 'cutout':5 'full':2 'full-siz':1 'manifold':7 'pictur':13 'size':3 'take':12

An action that most people would prefer not happen (eg pee in ball pit) will happen because of market incentives 

'action':2 'ball':13 'eg':10 'happen':9,16 'incent':20 'market':19 'pee':11 'peopl':5 'pit':14 'prefer':7 'would':6

'combat':3 'fake':5 'play':2 'role':1 'sword':6

Proofnik’s are mischievous little imps (eg bringing in a ball pit)

'ball':11 'bring':8 'eg':7 'imp':6 'littl':5 'mischiev':4 'pit':12 'proofnik':1

'20':1 'glow':4 'peopl':2 'stick':5 'wear':3

A serious marriage proposal at the conference 

'confer':7 'marriag':3 'propos':4 'serious':2

'ai':7 'human':6 'pin':8 'someon':1 'wear':4

User @NathanpmYoung challenges someone to a rap battle 

'battl':8 'challeng':3 'nathanpmyoung':2 'rap':7 'someon':4 'user':1

At least twenty guests will reattend (not speakers or staff)

'guest':4 'least':2 'reattend':6 'speaker':8 'staff':10 'twenti':3

There will be a "vindication" event where doubters will be mocked by underdogs who ended up winning (ie LK-99, or other big surprising markets)

'-99':20 'big':23 'doubter':8 'end':15 'event':6 'ie':18 'lk':19 'market':25 'mock':11 'surpris':24 'underdog':13 'vindic':5 'win':17

Will our nametags have our icons so people can find each other easily?

'easili':13 'find':10 'icon':6 'nametag':3 'peopl':8

There is an option to have your badge show your total profit and/or number of unique traders

'and/or':13 'badg':8 'number':14 'option':4 'profit':12 'show':9 'total':11 'trader':17 'uniqu':16

Will 7+ attendees perform the "Dark Manifold Ritual"

'7':2 'attende':3 'dark':6 'manifold':7 'perform':4 'ritual':8

Two people wearing apple vision pros talk to each other

'appl':4 'peopl':2 'pros':6 'talk':7 'two':1 'vision':5 'wear':3

A market created during Manifest has 400+ traders by the end of Manifest

'400':7 'creat':3 'end':11 'manifest':5,13 'market':2 'trader':8

someone challenges @NathanpmYoung to a rap battle

'battl':7 'challeng':2 'nathanpmyoung':3 'rap':6 'someon':1

'5':1 'attend':6 'page':5 'peopl':2 'wikipedia':4

Over 2 million trading volume on a single Manifest-related market by the end of Manifest

'2':2 'end':15 'manifest':10,17 'manifest-rel':9 'market':12 'million':3 'relat':11 'singl':8 'trade':4 'volum':5

'carter':2 'debat':3 'destini':4 'jimmi':1

New once in a century pandemic starts during or immediately before conference 

'centuri':5 'confer':12 'immedi':10 'new':1 'pandem':6 'start':7

Guest speaker quotes a song by The Bloodhound Gang

'bloodhound':8 'gang':9 'guest':1 'quot':3 'song':5 'speaker':2

At least one attendee successfully convinces @Joshua that they were a cast member on The Wire (whether that is true or not)

'attende':4 'cast':12 'convinc':6 'joshua':7 'least':2 'member':13 'one':3 'success':5 'true':20 'whether':17 'wire':16

User @Joshua will meet (at least one) wizard

'joshua':2 'least':6 'meet':4 'one':7 'user':1 'wizard':8

I'll be able to assemble a minyan for either speed-davening Friday night or Saturday morning

'abl':4 'assembl':6 'daven':13 'either':10 'friday':14 'll':2 'minyan':8 'morn':18 'night':15 'saturday':17 'speed':12 'speed-daven':11

There will be soup made according to @Stralor's recipe https://manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a

'/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a':13 'accord':6 'made':5 'manifold.markets':12 'manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-stralor-send-me-a-recipe-for-a':11 'recip':10 'soup':4 'stralor':8

Interaction between at least 4 silly geese (vibes-based, resolves at @Joshua's discretion)

'4':5 'base':10 'discret':15 'gees':7 'interact':1 'joshua':13 'least':4 'resolv':11 'silli':6 'vibe':9 'vibes-bas':8

Someone rides a Unicycle and does some kind of trick

'kind':8 'ride':2 'someon':1 'trick':10 'unicycl':4

Someone gets infected with Lumina probiotic (BCS3-L1) developed by Lantern Bioworks

'bcs3':8 'bcs3-l1':7 'biowork':13 'develop':10 'get':2 'infect':3 'l1':9 'lantern':12 'lumina':5 'probiot':6 'someon':1

Will anyone be able to spin a top more than ten minutes? One real try per person

'abl':4 'anyon':2 'minut':12 'one':13 'per':16 'person':17 'real':14 'spin':6 'ten':11 'top':8 'tri':15

'fursuit':5 'partial':4 'public':6 'someon':1 'wear':2

An action that most people would prefer not happen will happen specifically because of market incentives from this option, or the previous option this one is based on (the one submitted by @Nikos ).

'action':2 'base':27 'happen':9,11 'incent':16 'market':15 'niko':33 'one':25,30 'option':19,23 'peopl':5 'prefer':7 'previous':22 'specif':12 'submit':31 'would':6

Somebody wears something that causes an argument over whether or not it counts as a fursuit

'argument':7 'caus':5 'count':13 'fursuit':16 'somebodi':1 'someth':3 'wear':2 'whether':9

There will be a plant that glows in the dark

A new product or startup will be announced by an attendee

'announc':8 'attende':11 'new':2 'product':3 'startup':5

Multiple people bring/buy/sell plushies related to the Effective Altruism, Rationality/LessWrong, SlateStarCodex/AstralCodexTen, or Manifold communities e.g. plush shoggoth

'altruism':9 'bring/buy/sell':3 'communiti':14 'e.g':15 'effect':8 'manifold':13 'multipl':1 'peopl':2 'plush':16 'plushi':4 'rationality/lesswrong':10 'relat':5 'shoggoth':17 'slatestarcodex/astralcodexten':11

At least one Juggalo in full make-up is present for any amount of time

'amount':14 'full':6 'juggalo':4 'least':2 'make':8 'make-up':7 'one':3 'present':11 'time':16

Grey goo / nanoweapon X-risk is discussed by a speaker

'discuss':8 'goo':2 'grey':1 'nanoweapon':3 'risk':6 'speaker':11 'x':5 'x-risk':4

A conspicuous orb is held by at least three people simultaneously

'conspicu':2 'held':5 'least':8 'orb':3 'peopl':10 'simultan':11 'three':9

A group of five or more people break into song

'break':8 'five':4 'group':2 'peopl':7 'song':10

This market hits second place in 24 hour volume (screenshot)

'24':7 'hit':3 'hour':8 'market':2 'place':5 'screenshot':10 'second':4 'volum':9

Physical spice (seasoning, hot sauce, whatever) is used by a speaker to symbolize or represent Spice from Manifold

'hot':4 'manifold':18 'physic':1 'repres':15 'sauc':5 'season':3 'speaker':11 'spice':2,16 'symbol':13 'use':8 'whatev':6

'michael':1 'michaelwheatley':3 'wheatley':2

'eliez':1 'eliezeryudkowski':3 'yudkowski':2

Certainty of Victory - @CertaintyOfVictory

'certainti':1 'certaintyofvictori':4 'victori':3

Simi Best, Art Thief Extraordinaire - @SimiBest

'art':3 'best':2 'extraordinair':5 'simi':1 'simibest':6 'thief':4

'schulz':2 'thoma':1 'thomasschulze857':3

Philip Parker - @parkerphilipc (Bet on Love winner)

'bet':4 'love':6 'parker':2 'parkerphilipc':3 'philip':1 'winner':7