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ACX 2024
Mirror Bot
Bot
The ACX 2024 prediction contest.
Manifold
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Mirror Bot
Bot
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]
72%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
2024 US Presidential Election
#
Trump
#
Metaculus
427
Ṁ2.5k
Mirror Bot
Bot
Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? [ACX 2024]
59%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Cannabis
507
Ṁ3.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? [ACX 2024]
89%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
2024 US Presidential Election
#
Joe Biden
#
Trump
457
Ṁ2.8k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
6%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Twitter
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
169
Ṁ1.5k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
58%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Israel
308
Ṁ2.2k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?
YES
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
US Politics
155
Ṁ1.5k
Manifold Politics
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
51%
Democratic Party
Yes
No
49%
Republican Party
Yes
No
0%
Other
Yes
No
#
US Politics
#
2024 US Presidential Election
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
1067
Ṁ8.7k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?
78%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
Stocks
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
172
Ṁ1.6k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
9%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Ukraine
74
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
13%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Iran
96
Ṁ1.2k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
55%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Electric Vehicles
65
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
5%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Ukraine-Russia war
111
Ṁ1.3k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
6%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Ukraine-Russia war
82
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
47%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
2024 US Presidential Election
129
Ṁ1.4k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
3%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Nuclear Risk
72
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
6%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Wars
80
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
20%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Public Health
75
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
16%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
US Politics
104
Ṁ1.2k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?
28%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
Metaculus
#
Refugees
69
Ṁ1.1k
Mirror Bot
Bot
[ACX 2024] In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?
22%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Metaculus
#
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
#
SCOTUS
78
Ṁ1.1k
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