US &#x27;24

#US Congressional Elections 2024

Will Republicans take the majority in the US Senate in 2024?78% chance

#2024 US Election

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?60% chance

#US Congressional Elections 2024

#2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

If Trump becomes President, will he "Make America Great Again" by the midterms? [Gallup Polling > Obama]38% chance

#Conditional markets

Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?50% chance

Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (RCP Average Trump +1.1%)

31%

June

20%

July

18%

Not before Election Day

14%

August

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What will be the Electoral College margin in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

1.4%

D by 215+

D by 155-214

D by 105-154

10%

D by 65-104

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Who will win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?

95%

Joe Biden

1.8%

Kamala Harris

1.7%

Gavin Newsom

0.6%

A Candidate Not Listed Here

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#Democratic Party

If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?

78%

"lower taxes"

71%

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

66%

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

60%

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

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How many Senate seats will Republicans control after the 2024 elections?

48 or fewer

10%

18%

19%

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#2024 US Election

#US Congressional Elections 2024

#US Senate

NBC News

Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off the state's 2024 primary ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution

In a bombshell decision, Colorado's Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that former President Donald Trump's candidacy in the state's primary next year is prohibited on constitutional grounds.

Will SCOTUS reverse the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the ballot? YES

Will Nikki Haley drop out before the South Carolina primary?NO

#Supreme Court

#SCOTUS

#Nikki Haley

#2024 Republican Primaries

Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)

36%

Doug Burgum (ND Governor)

20%

Tim Scott (SC Senator )

10%

J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)

Elise Stefanik (NY Congresswoman)

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Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? [Top 6 candidates, new market style]

97%

Donald Trump

0.1%

Ron DeSantis

Tim Scott

1.4%

Nikki Haley

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Will the Supreme Court make any decision on the Trump Colorado ballot before March 2024?NO

Who will still be in the Republican primary on Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024)?

Resolved

YES

Donald Trump

Resolved

YES

Nikki Haley

Resolved

Ron DeSantis

Resolved

Vivek Ramaswamy

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Will the independent run of RFK Jr hurt Democrats more than Republicans?47% chance

#Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Democratic congressman Dean Phillips launches primary challenge against Biden

#2024 US Election

the Guardian

Decision by little known Minnesota representative has led to criticism from many of his colleagues

Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?80% chance

Will RFK Jr. end up running as an Independent in 2024?89% chance