Will Trump beat Biden in these swing state polls on May 1st?
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resolved May 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolved
YESWisconsin
Resolved
YESPennsylvania
Resolved
YESMichigan
Resolved
YESNevada
Resolved
YESArizona
Resolved
YESGeorgia
Resolved
YESNorth Carolina
This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump on May 1st at Noon Pacific Time.
Any state in which Trump is leading resolves Yes, any state in which in which his losing resolves No. In the case of a tie, resolves based on the next non-tie update to the average.
As of market creation on 3/15, these are the averages:
Pennsylvania - Trump +0.6
Michigan - Trump +3.5
Wisconsin - Trump +1.0
Nevada - Trump +5.6
Arizona - Trump +5.2
Georgia - Trump +5.7
North Carolina - Trump +5.5
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