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It seems The Keys to the White House is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose, and it looks like around 4 or 5 are false right now.
From a recent April 30th CNN interview, Lichtman says:
Biden loses keys:
1. Midterm Elections
12. Incumbent Charisma
with there being 4 unsure keys:
4. Third Party (depends on if RFK polls over 10% when it's closer to the election)
8. Social Unrest (Lichtman says the current college protests are not enough, they'd probably have to get much larger)
10. Foreign/military failure
11. Foreign/military success (doesn't feel like this will be true)
This implies both that all other keys are likely true, and that no event prior to the interview (Afghanistan withdrawal/Ukraine) was significant enough for him to decisively state that any of those 4 unsure keys are false.
Lichtman says he expects to make his prediction in early August.
@TNTOutburst I think Biden will win but the Keys are subjective garbage. It’s a complete joke to call IRA “major policy change” when 70% of the country has never heard of it. The biggest policy change during Biden’s term, by far, was Dobbs - which was against him.
Recession doesn’t account for inflation or interest rates, which are the two biggest knocks against Bidenomics.
Biden’s approval rating never recovered from Afghanistan withdrawal. That’s a pretty good case for foreign policy failure.
The answer to no social unrest is a funny one. Let’s see if he’s singing the same tune after the Chicago DNC or moves the goalposts again.
@MarkHamill yeah the keys to the white house feels both largely subjective and like textbook overfitting, but since it has a better prediction record than both pollsters and betting markets, I still find it interesting to keep an eye on. Even if Lichtman just got lucky/he is the one good at predicting elections, not the model.
@MarkHamill Most voters can't name any legislation but they still might understand and appreciate the IRA's effect. The nightmare runaway inflation scenario predicted in late 2021, never really materialized and unemployment rates have barely moved from their all time lows. 3.4% inflation isn't ideal but it's also not the end of the world. Still, I'd be willing to wager that fewer Americans remember the details of our exit from Afghanistan or Syria than know anything about the Inflation Reduction Act.
What Americans remember from Afghanistan is watching footage of a bunch of crazy desperate people who failed to defend their own city trying to hitch a ride on the side of a cargo plane.
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@Hailey What exactly do you mean that Biden has gone “full trans”? As a centrist democrat I’ve never heard of anything like this so I’m not exactly pissed off like you claim
Every single major foreign policy event has hurt Biden (Afghanistan and Gaza directly, Ukraine indirectly by causing more inflation). Is this time different?
@ShakedKoplewitz I think in the case of Iran it's easier to seperate the people from the goverment, since it's well known the regime is unpopular and they have proper military bases for Israel to attack, so I don't think it'll happen
@TiredCliche guess? I can guess a lot of reasons, it's easy to rationalize away extremists if you see them as being on your side. That doesn't mean there's not a real problem here.
@ForrestTaylor I think American citizens cheering for a terrorist theocratic regime a day after it launched a massive missile barrage in an unprovoked attack on an ally is bad. This is not complicated.