@strutheo resolves NO

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/derby_oaks_thunder

@strutheo it's past may 15th, resolves NO. (original release date may 3rd but it's not out yet)

Spice balaces reported as 10050.
I have found Joshua has 1000 https://manifold.markets/Joshua
So I think there must be at least 2 users with spice. i haven't found any others in top 30 masters or top 2 diamond.

@ChristopherRandles FWIW the 50 spice was there last week, before spice launched (not Joshua’s 1000). Not sure why

2670 May 16th

lots of other markets like this resolving yes with the release of GPT-4o
one or two resolving no so ymmv

@JoeandSeth Most of those had language specifying that a big enough update would count even if it wasn't called 4.5 (which led to debate over what counts as big enough); this one doesn't AFAICT?

@strutheo the trailer just dropped, resolves YES https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=YN2H_sKcmGw

(amusingly they waited to post it til 2 hours after the LotR teaser)

Resolves YES:
https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2927:_Alphabetical_Cartogram
https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2929:_Good_and_Bad_Ideas
https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2930:_Google_Solar_Cycle
https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2931:_Chasing
https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2932:_Driving_PSA

Resolves Yes?

https://www.gbnews.com/celebrity/bambie-thug-eurovision-ireland-shout-final-song

@ClubmasterTransparent This one’s a visual statement https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/11/arts/eurovision-final/4973d913-92b8-531e-8da1-9ab4c4111c56?smid=url-share

@ClubmasterTransparent Link is poor. The singer from Portugal has her nails painted in keffiyeh print.

@ClubmasterTransparent I can see this going either way, but speaking as myself and not as the question maker, I just don't think "love beats hate" or "peace will win" are political statements. They're too vague and safe, even if we might infer what the person could have been referring to. "Free Palestine" or "Russia out of Georgia" or "Trans rights in [country name]" would have been an easy Yes.

@Panfilo Fair, but the keffiyeh nails?

@Panfilo Here we go, she’s flashing them not just happening to have them

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-13409005/eurovision-2024-hidden-pro-palestine-messages-performances-outfits.html

@ClubmasterTransparent I'd be happy to leave it up to @strutheo if the nail flash counts as an "unscripted/unapproved political statement"

tough call ill look later, maybe 50% idk yet

@strutheo tweet

https://images.app.goo.gl/ZtVFDKgDNftd1nc18

Wasn't this added after the fact? It was added 5 hours ago, when the solar storm had already hit.

@MugaSofer i cant NA anymore... rip.

this is going to be annoying on ulmc mc markets @Joshua

@MugaSofer The solar storm had already hit but at the time the question was added it had only reached a G4 classification I believe

Can this resolve Yes?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/10/us/xavier-vermont-cancel-linda-thomas-greenfield.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

@ClubmasterTransparent yes!

@strutheo resolves YES https://manifold.markets/TenShino/will-a-palestinian-flag-be-visible

If one more person trades on this it'll reach 100 (so grab your little bit of free mana)

/TenShino/will-a-palestinian-flag-be-visible