You can help us in resolving options by spending at least 1 mana on each tweet you have an opinion on. Buy YES if you think it's a good take and NO if you think it's a bad take.
Many markets come in the form of "is this tweet a good take?" so I thought we'd try just doing the most direct possible version of that.
You can submit any "hot take" tweet, as well as a quote from the tweet or a neutral summary of the take. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get trader bonuses. The tweet can be from any time, but I think more recent hot takes would be better.
I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.
As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in tweets you think are Good Takes, buy any amount of NO in tweets you think are Bad Takes. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.
If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.
Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote. I have unranked the market so it will not impact leagues.
The market will close every Saturday at Noon Pacific. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.
If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES. If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO. If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running. It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted. In a tie, the tweet will not resolve that week.
I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.
Related questions
@shankypanky Since you posted this and voted Yes, I'm assuming you mostly agree with it.
But someone wise told me recently, "I know how popular it is to post surveys or polls or limited studies to back up comments around here, but I'll need more than that when you're making such sweeping statements."
So... how about it? ;-)
I'm open to being convinced. But my first thought was that no one (male or female) enjoys being told what to do by someone incompetent.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 well first of all, that does sound like something a wise person would say. but let's start with clearing a couple of things up?
- I've posted stuff here I don't agree with (mostly, at all, or otherwise)
- this isn't a survey or a poll or a limited study and I didn't make the statement to begin with ;)
- I actually don't feel so attached to this (hence my little token bet I guess) so I won't argue as fervently as some other topics. happy to go into it, though! you know me... lol
perhaps most importantly:
- the tweet doesn't say that men like always to be told what to do by anyone, including someone incompetent so I think your last sentence is somewhat irrelevant. it simply says they like being told what to do more than women do (leaving aside, for now, the point about gendered disparity.) I can't tell if you wholly disagree with that or if you disagree because you've taken some liberties with the interpretation.
@shankypanky Thanks, understood!
I wasn't sure exactly what the original tweet even means, but the follow-up clarifies things a bit: "Men really love authority and consensus derived processes and natural hierarchies and women don't like any of that shit."
So I started coming up with specific examples. One organization that's built around a natural hierarchy is the military, which is predominantly male. So that's one point in favor of the tweet, and maybe that's the kind of thing the author had in mind.
But as an opposite example, I suspect people who flout COVID mask mandates are also predominantly male (e.g., Bryan Caplan: Reflections on Japan - by Bryan Caplan - Bet On It).
Bryan is also strongly libertarian, which I think is generally driven by a strong distrust of government authority. And twice as many men as women self-identify as libertarian: In search of libertarians | Pew Research Center.
That's why I brought up "being told what to do by someone incompetent". My own hypothesis is that men are much more willing than women to accept a competent authority, but also much more likely to rebel against someone who's incompetent.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 oh, good! we're wandering back into my favourite territory: men do things that are just and make sense, whereas women are more likely to be subservient to the incompetent (and presumably this again relates to who is more 'truth-seeking'?). and here I was worried we left this line of thinking behind in the last thread!
I'll think this through and respond more fully later when I can devote more of my attention to it. (I appreciate you taking a moment to respond). stay tuned.
@shankypanky Oops, maybe that didn't come out right.
To start with, I don't think rebelling against COVID mask mandates is "just and makes sense" - I think it's incredibly anti-social at best.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm referring to this:
My own hypothesis is that men are much more willing than women to accept a competent authority, but also much more likely to rebel against someone who's incompetent.
@shankypanky Yeah, I didn't mean to claim that one way is "just and makes sense" though.
Following competent people can be a terrible thing to do, and rebelling against incompetent people can also be terrible. It depends on the context.
@shankypanky Maybe competence is a misleading word. Let me try another example - Melinda Gates has said that when Bill was the CEO at Microsoft, the company culture was that you could get away with being a huge asshole as long as you were also the smartest person in the room.
I take that as an example of how a hierarchy based on competence can also be dysfunctional. And I think it's not a coincidence that kind of problem generally happens in an organization that's predominantly male.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 okay, well, scratch that phrasing I used, then, if you're stuck on that part. I'll take it back as it's true that you didn't specifically say that the competent authority is the one with the more justifiable position. (perhaps you want to define competent and incompetent for the sake of your statement, then?)
the point is that making generalisations based on a niche political affiliation means you're leaning on a pretty small snapshot of the population.
and I think it's really strange to just take the guess that men would relent to "competent" authority and women would relent to "incompetent" authority in higher proportions. making a statement like that isn't really counterbalanced with "oh, but that doesn't mean those are good or bad things, respectively!"
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'll wait until you define competence because it's not synonymous with "smartest person in the room" lol
@shankypanky Well, first, I'd like to adjust my original statement to perceived competence: "men are more likely to follow someone they perceive as competent, and less likely to follow someone they perceive as incompetent". Maybe that's a big difference from what I said first, in which case I apologize. But I think it's clear that what matters is the perception, not the reality.
In the context of a tech company, perceived competence is based on a few factors. I believe the main ones are intelligence (hence "smartest person in the room") and experience.
In an unhealthy culture, stating one's opinions forcefully, even to the point of being an asshole, also generally leads to being perceived as more competent. A healthier culture rewards taking time to listen to other people and answer their concerns instead. Either way, formal authority ranks relatively low, which is why I disagree with the tweet.
In a more general context, perceived competence is closely related to "believability". The term comes from Ray Dalio, but my favorite explanation of it is here: Believability - Commoncog:
"Believable people are people who have 1) a record of at least three relevant successes and 2) have great explanations of their approach when probed."
The main reason some people stopped trusting public health authorities during COVID is that they were no longer believable. The perception (fair or not) was that they frequently changed their advice when it failed, and then they tried to censor people who pointed that out instead of explaining why.
Also, I understand I'm generalizing wildly from a small number of examples, so I'm only proposing this as a hypothesis. I don't claim high confidence yet. But if you disagree, I'd appreciate a counterexample of where you think my hypothesis goes wrong.
@shankypanky Well, men are more likely to do extremely stupid things like get in a duel and kill each other over petty nonsense.
@shankypanky I'm a long way from 50, but I hope my wife and I will be doing more interesting things then...
I think this is the kind of thread the tweet is responding to: https://t.co/8BP0EBbWzL.
I don't hate him, but he spent more time critiquing fashion in this one thread than I'll ever spend in my entire life.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I can never get past a couple posts in a thread of his, but he's a good follow and has had some killer comebacks