Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
440
71kṀ400k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
Roko: "...The net total productivity contribution of women to GDP is negative, and by a very large amount." https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1770045723188383975
Resolved
YES
Nate Silver: "...Election denialism is a good place to draw a harder line, actually." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1772264031899816423
Resolved
YES
Aella: "I think I was wrong about feminism. I used to be much more feminism-skeptical than I am today..." https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1773241333643145289
Resolved
YES
Yudkowsky: "Current AIs are roughly as generally intelligent as human 4-year-olds, as dangerous as 4-year-olds, and as controllable as 4-year-olds." https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1773591921996268027
Resolved
YES
Emmett Shear: "Happy Easter! It’s too bad they’ve killed the bird branding on Twitter, or we could have an egg hunt here." https://twitter.com/eshear/status/1774419161550328283
Resolved
NO
Matthew Barnett: "It's interesting that we actually got something like a 6 month pause that FLI was asking for in their open letter." https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1774242147346387216
Resolved
YES
Roko: "Numba Go Up is the usecase" (for crypto) https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1774140578424651942
Resolved
NO
Peter Singer: "zoophilia is more morally correct/responsible than eating animals" https://x.com/PeterSinger/status/1723269850930491707
Resolved
NO
Roko: "Plant based diets are probably very bad for you." https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1743690578250936639
Resolved
YES
@Duderichy: "The problem with roko is that he’s not very smart" https://twitter.com/Duderichy/status/1477828084019564546
Resolved
NO
Dimitri: "I don't care about your beliefs as long as you're smart" https://twitter.com/TheDimitriT/status/1773090831097803078
Resolved
NO
Hanania: "if you need to wash your hands after using the urinal, you're doing it wrong" https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1774499705218863199
Resolved
NO
i/o: "the big 5 personality traits explain the phenomenon of female-centric wokeness" https://x.com/eyeslasho/status/1773351469418160224
Resolved
NO
@jeremymstamper "e/accs are suffering Jim Crow era oppression" by being turned away from parties for their affiliation https://twitter.com/jeremymstamper/status/1774477281999864173
Resolved
YES
Stephen Neukam: "New Yorkers already think they are the center of the universe. Let's not make that worse." https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1776269366381715753
Resolved
YES
Dan Elton: "Even if #LongCOVID was not a thing, it's rational to mask at airports if u care about ur health" https://twitter.com/moreisdifferent/status/1776595020365095153
Resolved
NO
Yud: "how can you regard Bryan Johnson as anything but a hero?" https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1776086891311583394
Resolved
NO
Yacine: "utilitarianism is what happens to slaves when they lose God" https://twitter.com/yacineMTB/status/1774474147059347656
Resolved
NO
Yglesias: "deep down people crave to be enslaved by their employer to a fixed routine and place of work..." https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1775344293370122470
Resolved
NO
Hanania: "The ceasefire crowd doesn't get it. Israel has an actual enemy. It's not the enemy you wish they had." https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1776712070429601930

You can help us in resolving options by spending at least 1 mana on each tweet you have an opinion on. Buy YES if you think it's a good take and NO if you think it's a bad take.

Many markets come in the form of "is this tweet a good take?" so I thought we'd try just doing the most direct possible version of that.

You can submit any "hot take" tweet, as well as a quote from the tweet or a neutral summary of the take.The tweet can be from any time, but I think more recent hot takes would be better.

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.


As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in tweets you think are Good Takes, buy any amount of NO in tweets you think are Bad Takes. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.

The market will close every Saturday at Noon Pacific. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES. If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO. If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running. It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted. In a tie, the tweet will not resolve that week.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

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