🐣What will happen in April 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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May 1
January starts
Jan 2
February starts
Feb 1
March starts
Mar 1
April starts
Apr 1
93%
It's the hottest April on record globally
Resolved
YES
North Korea tests a rocket
Resolved
YES
Solar eclipse causes serious injury to anyone (news must be from a reputable source)
Resolved
YES
a tesla catches fire as confirmed by tesla-fire.com/mainstream news
Resolved
YES
The Detroit Pistons win a game.
Resolved
YES
large tech company announces layoffs
Resolved
YES
@Tumbles pays off his Ṁ324,000 debt (due by end of month)
Resolved
YES
at least one xkcd comic where there are no stick figures at all
Resolved
YES
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
Resolved
YES
skibidi toilet releases at least two new mainline videos this month (even if individual parts)
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
At least one share of nVidia stock is traded for $900 or more during normal, premarket, or aftermarket hours
Resolved
YES
An outbreak of at least ten tornadoes causes significant damage in the United States
Resolved
YES
@ManifoldMarkets posts at least one April Fool on X (former: Twitter)
Resolved
YES
FDA recalls a meat product
Resolved
YES
US consumer product safety commission recalls a baby / kids product (not food/consumable)
Resolved
YES
The "No Labels" candidate for President fails to poll higher than 15% for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Someone in masters league loses >90% of their mana net worth for >1 day
Resolved
YES
Every NBA team loses a game

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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Manifold Masters league is won by someone who has never won before

Resolves yes! @chrisjbillington won and hasn’t before.

Anyone is hospitalized as a direct result of the student protests about Israel and Gaza
bought Ṁ100 Anyone is hospitaliz... YES

This new NBC Boston article contains a claim that some students were hospitalized from the clearing of the Emerson College camp last week.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/college-campus-tensions-grow-over-pro-palestinian-protests/3352863/?amp=1

bought Ṁ50 Anyone is hospitaliz... YES

@Panfilo Since a lot of camps were cleared in the last few days, I’ll try to see if there are any other new articles trickling out.

bought Ṁ200 Anyone is hospitaliz... YES

@Panfilo Okay, this one is a more solid resolution: three people hospitalized for dehydration yesterday in the UT protest. https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Over-100-Arrested-at-UT-Austin-Amid-Pro-Palestinian-Protest-20240430-0002.html

The MLB team that wins the most games is the Dodgers or Braves
sold Ṁ57 The MLB team that wi... YES

The Braves game tonight counts regardless of when it finishes, right? (Assuming it's not suspended). The game starts at 9:40pm Eastern Time, so it likely won't finish until May in ET. Could theoretically go past Midnight Pacific Time, but rather unlikely.

@DanielTilkin Yeah, in past months we've gone by the start time for the game.

the '500 poll' on manifold reaches 180 responses
bought Ṁ400 the '500 poll' on ma... YES

Resolves YES 🎉🎉

reposted

LAST DAY!

Donald Trump held in contempt of court, and sanctioned with fines or imprisonment
bought Ṁ300 Donald Trump held in... YES

@strutheo resolves YES

Why has the question about who leads in HumanEval been bid down so much? It's the last day of the month and there haven't been any new models released.

@SteveSokolowski Is it still highest in HumanEval? I see AgentCoder (GPT-4) at 96.3.

bought Ṁ150 On April 30, 2024, a... YES

@SteveSokolowski Does it have to be the 0-shot score in order to count?

@ChadCotty If it was supposed to only be 0-shot I really think that should have been specified.

@MugaSofer I agree it was ambiguous.

@ChadCotty It also shows how these evaluations are limited, because Claude 3 Opus destroys GPT-4-Turbo in understanding code in practical use. Even within its own smaller context window, GPT-4 seems to forget things that are towards the beginning.

bought Ṁ200 Anyone is hospitaliz... YES

@SteveSokolowski I have no skin in the game and think this sounds like either No or N/A. The question does not say zero shot.

@Panfilo I think you mean No (or N/A). The question says Anthropic is in the lead, but they aren't. Who resolves this?

@Mactuary But the general “base” model absent additional specialized training (0-shot) is still in the lead.

@ChadCotty I do wish the question had specified. There's multiple ways to test this as the multiple leaderboards reflect.

mkbhd's rabbit r1 review releases on youtube
bought Ṁ60 mkbhd's rabbit r1 re... YES
At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all
bought Ṁ970 At least five XKCD c... NO

3 or 4 depending whether you count blobs but not 5. No more expected.

bought Ṁ100 On April 30, 2024, a... NO

@ChristopherRandles Agreed, resolves NO.