Resolves to whoever is selected as the United States Democratic Party nominee for President at the 2024 Democratic National Convention
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U guys know you can get biden cheaper over here: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n?r=amlt
@jim I just noticed you can buy 'not Biden' cheaper here.
https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/what-margin-does-biden-win-the-popu?r=UGxhc21hQmFsbGlu
@jim There's too many overlapping bets about 2024, someone needs to make a diagram.
@NcyRocks Me either, I think it's an irrational choice based on conspiracy theories. But I'll take my profit.
@Fedor I've seen some people with 'go michelle' novelty accounts max on her. Seems more like fan behaviour. Also for small probabilities it's very easy to move the market so someone dumping their free 500M when creating new account immediately distorts the market by a lot.
@NcyRocks Barack Obama was popular, she's popular, she's a black woman so she's one of the few people it won't look bad to pass over Kamala Harris in favor of. If the Democrats are purely interested in maximizing chances of electoral victory, you don't think there's a strong argument for drafting her, regardless of whether or not she wants the job? I think I put the prob of nomination at around 0.25%. Let me know if you want a bet at those odds, lol.
@jgyou I don't know of any markets that are liquid enough and have Biden's death at a low enough probability for me to do that.