Wil Hu Chuhua be the next Premier of the People's Republic of China?

 → Will Hu Chunhua be the next Premier of the People's Republic of China?

Resolves YES if Hu Chunhua is announced as the new Chinese Premier (#2 behind Xi Jinping) at the end of this year. Resolves NO if not.

Hu is only 59 and would be the first the generation of Chinese leaders to emerge in Xi's inner circle. Recent state media reporting following the CCP leadership retreat has conspicuously raised Hu's profile, but it is hard to read to much into anything communicated by the party short of formal and final pronouncements. 

Resolves YES if the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) keeps the so-called “seven up, eight down” rule. Resolves NO if they break it. 

 should not be treated as an ordinary PSC member. 

Since 2002, no PSC member has been reappointed at age 68 or beyond, or retired at age 67 or younger. New PSC entrants almost always come from the wider 25-member Politburo, where retirement has likewise been enforced at age 68 (though some officials have retired early, unlike in the PSC). In addition, a provisional rule issued in 2006 stipulates that officials should stay no longer than two five-year terms in a single position.

For ordinary PSC members, the age norms are clearer. Assuming rule is upheld, Li Keqiang (67) and Wang Yang (67) should both stay on the PSC, as should Wang Huning (67) and Zhao Leji (65). 

But Li Zhanshu (72) and Han Zheng (68) should both retire, vacating two PSC spots. 

The top two candidates for those vacancies are Hu Chunhua (59) and Chen Min’er (62), given their seniority on the Politburo and factional ties. You may find markets related as below,

Li Keqiang is the current premier of China (sorta like the prime minister). He is very influential but not considered a member of Xi Jinping's inner circle. 

Resolves YES if he is reappointed to another 5 year term. Resolves NO if not. 

Close date updated to 2022-10-20 11:59 pm

Li Zhanshu is currently the top legislator as head of the National Party Congress Standing Committee and has been a member of the seven member PSC since 2018. He is a close ally of Xi Jinping. 

Resolves YES if he is reappointed to another five year term.