🐣What will happen in April 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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44K
May 1
January starts
Jan 2
February starts
Feb 1
March starts
Mar 1
April starts
Apr 1
99.6%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
99.2%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
99%
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
98.9%
The "No Labels" candidate for President fails to poll higher than 15% for the entire month
97%
No motion to vacate the chair in the House is voted upon
95%
Anyone is hospitalized as a direct result of the student protests about Israel and Gaza
90%
It's the hottest April on record globally
80%
Manifold Masters league is won by someone who has never won before
79%
On April 30, 2024, at 11:59:59pm EDT, Anthropic retains the lead in most intelligent coding model (highest in HumanEval) (model must be publically available)
44%
The MLB team that wins the most games is the Dodgers or Braves
9%
DDoS attack against major software company
9%
the top meme in memefold is made by stefanie OR chris
9%
two teslas catch fire as reported by tesla-fire.com or other news
7%
It's the hottest April on record in the US
6%
At least one person in North America is hospitalized with bird flu (H5N1).
6%
Google Search or Home Assistant gets baseline LLM integration
6%
Any head of state/government mentions veganism on live TV
6%
NFL, MLB, or NBA player arrested for DUI
5%
ddos disrupts availability of a "similarweb top 50" website
5%
A new conflict is added/upgraded to the Wars or Major Wars section of Wikipedia here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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Anyone is hospitalized as a direct result of the student protests about Israel and Gaza
bought Ṁ100 Anyone is hospitaliz... YES

This new NBC Boston article contains a claim that some students were hospitalized from the clearing of the Emerson College camp last week.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/college-campus-tensions-grow-over-pro-palestinian-protests/3352863/?amp=1

bought Ṁ50 Anyone is hospitaliz... YES

@Panfilo Since a lot of camps were cleared in the last few days, I’ll try to see if there are any other new articles trickling out.

bought Ṁ200 Anyone is hospitaliz... YES

@Panfilo Okay, this one is a more solid resolution: three people hospitalized for dehydration yesterday in the UT protest. https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Over-100-Arrested-at-UT-Austin-Amid-Pro-Palestinian-Protest-20240430-0002.html

The MLB team that wins the most games is the Dodgers or Braves
sold Ṁ57 The MLB team that wi... YES

The Braves game tonight counts regardless of when it finishes, right? (Assuming it's not suspended). The game starts at 9:40pm Eastern Time, so it likely won't finish until May in ET. Could theoretically go past Midnight Pacific Time, but rather unlikely.

@DanielTilkin Yeah, in past months we've gone by the start time for the game.

the '500 poll' on manifold reaches 180 responses
bought Ṁ400 the '500 poll' on ma... YES

Resolves YES 🎉🎉

reposted

LAST DAY!

Donald Trump held in contempt of court, and sanctioned with fines or imprisonment
bought Ṁ300 Donald Trump held in... YES

@strutheo resolves YES

Why has the question about who leads in HumanEval been bid down so much? It's the last day of the month and there haven't been any new models released.

@SteveSokolowski Is it still highest in HumanEval? I see AgentCoder (GPT-4) at 96.3.

bought Ṁ150 On April 30, 2024, a... YES

@SteveSokolowski Does it have to be the 0-shot score in order to count?

@ChadCotty If it was supposed to only be 0-shot I really think that should have been specified.

@MugaSofer I agree it was ambiguous.

@ChadCotty It also shows how these evaluations are limited, because Claude 3 Opus destroys GPT-4-Turbo in understanding code in practical use. Even within its own smaller context window, GPT-4 seems to forget things that are towards the beginning.

bought Ṁ200 Anyone is hospitaliz... YES

@SteveSokolowski I have no skin in the game and think this sounds like either Yes or N/A. The question does not say zero shot.

mkbhd's rabbit r1 review releases on youtube
bought Ṁ60 mkbhd's rabbit r1 re... YES
At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all
bought Ṁ970 At least five XKCD c... NO

3 or 4 depending whether you count blobs but not 5. No more expected.

bought Ṁ100 On April 30, 2024, a... NO

@ChristopherRandles Agreed, resolves NO.

The MLB team that wins the most games is the Dodgers or Braves

Is this total wins or wins in April?

@ChadCotty total wins this season or total wins ever? How could either be considered to "happen in April 2024"?

@ChristopherRandles I’d agree it should go by who has won the most games in April (without including any wins in March)

sold Ṁ131 The MLB team that wi... NO

@ChadCotty By my count the Phillies have 18 wins and the Braves have 17 wins so far in April.

@ChadCotty I think your count is a bit old - the Braves, Yankees, Phillies, and Guardians are all tied at 19 wins in the latest standings.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Oh, I see, you're only counting April.

@strutheo I guess the only remaining question would be how it resolves if the Braves are tied with another team for the most wins in April at the end of the month. cc @AlexanderMiller

@ChadCotty I meant only counting April. And if the Braves are tied in wins I would count that as a YES.