Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
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13k
59k
May 25
23%
lillybilly299: "Men like being told what to do way more than women do. This explains almost every gendered disparity." https://x.com/lillybilly299/status/1792601845493346709
74%
noah smith: "Look, I hate to tell you this, because it's a little depressing, but the reason you can't seem to find a good man/good woman is because you're not horny." https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/1792770768696484321
61%
Plasma Ballin': There is an inverse correlation between people using the word "moral" and people doing or suggesting things that are actually moral. https://x.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1792649290826805400
79%
swann marcus: "I want Javier Milei to crush Argentina's inflation because..." [see full tweet] https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1792331466250055969
83%
95%
dcpetterson: "I have no patience for people who want a candidate to seduce them." https://twitter.com/dcpetterson/status/1792265468440658074
94%
Brock Short: "Since the ocean has meat, salt, and veg in it, it is technically a big thing of soup." https://twitter.com/brockshort/status/1215636053064855553
79%
@lucresnooker sorry but I hate the menswear guy. it’s all just vehement assertions without grappling with the obvious “so what?” question https://x.com/lucresnooker/status/1791494478252953746
89%
noah smith: "America needs a prominent politician who's also a furry." https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1791525575661851065
89%
Isaac King: "Seems bad.AI safety discourse has now solidly entered the signaling phase, where people do nonsense like this just to show off how committed they are to the ideology." https://twitter.com/IsaacKing314/status/1790863725261475965
55%
Kendric Tohn: He doesn't hate King Charles's painting, but it's evidence for the unseriousness of the art form in the present day. https://twitter.com/kendrictonn/status/1790460736193348058
67%
Plasma Ballin': "In liberal democracies, voting is generally a more effective way to achieve political ends than protests." https://twitter.com/PlasmaBallin/status/1790054580207616440
82%
Hanania: "20,000 people in Sweden are protesting a pop singer for being Israeli & nobody is even surprised. Europe is regressing towards the historical norm; antisemitism will be supercharged this time by immigration." https://rb.gy/ip85s1
32%
Noahpinion: "Unpopular opinion: The best cities are built around pedestrians, and one reason American urbanism struggles is that most of our urbanists are hardcore cyclists instead of wannabe pedestrians" https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/178
61%
Destiny: The Gaza war protestors are not brave. They are taking on the popular position among their demographic because their only ideology is "America bad" https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal/status/1785909756743254340

You can help us in resolving options by spending at least 1 mana on each tweet you have an opinion on. Buy YES if you think it's a good take and NO if you think it's a bad take.

Many markets come in the form of "is this tweet a good take?" so I thought we'd try just doing the most direct possible version of that.

You can submit any "hot take" tweet, as well as a quote from the tweet or a neutral summary of the take. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get trader bonuses. The tweet can be from any time, but I think more recent hot takes would be better.

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.


As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in tweets you think are Good Takes, buy any amount of NO in tweets you think are Bad Takes. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote. I have unranked the market so it will not impact leagues.

The market will close every Saturday at Noon Pacific. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES. If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO. If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running. It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted. In a tie, the tweet will not resolve that week.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

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noah smith: "Look, I hate to tell you this, because it's a little depressing, but the reason you can't seem to find a good man/good woman is because you're not horny." https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/1792770768696484321

Maybe the best solution to this is actually traditional marriage?

It's basically like the story that Noah tells, but without the breakup at the end to make things difficult.

follow up tweet lol

@shankypanky I'm a long way from 50, but I hope my wife and I will be doing more interesting things then...

dcpetterson: "I have no patience for people who want a candidate to seduce them." https://twitter.com/dcpetterson/status/1792265468440658074

This is a decent take by itself but the rest of the thread is pretty bad takes.

Brock Short: "Since the ocean has meat, salt, and veg in it, it is technically a big thing of soup." https://twitter.com/brockshort/status/1215636053064855553

The meat and veggies are too dilute. Imagine filling a bowl with water and then sprinkling in a few crumb-sized pieces of meat and vegetables and calling it soup. that's basically what the ocean is.

Yglesias: two party trolley problem https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1791951484344582284
bought Ṁ40 Yglesias: two party ... YES

"both parties have some bad ideas", sure absolutely. But they're not the same bad ideas.

noah smith: "America needs a prominent politician who's also a furry." https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1791525575661851065
bought Ṁ1 noah smith: "America... NO

And have furries fully become part of the culture war??? Absolutely not

@Marnix solution: just have both parties run a furry in the same race.

@lucresnooker sorry but I hate the menswear guy. it’s all just vehement assertions without grappling with the obvious “so what?” question https://x.com/lucresnooker/status/1791494478252953746

I think this is the kind of thread the tweet is responding to: https://t.co/8BP0EBbWzL.


I don't hate him, but he spent more time critiquing fashion in this one thread than I'll ever spend in my entire life.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I can never get past a couple posts in a thread of his, but he's a good follow and has had some killer comebacks

bought Ṁ10 Answer #24df1f7934ca YES

I would like to extend this take to point out the fact that the people who made the portal were insane if they didn't expect this obvious outcome to happen.

@PlasmaBallin By it's very nature isn't the flasher caught on camera? Isn't this vastly higher risk for them than just doing it in the street? And that happens somewhat rarely in any given spot

@TheAllMemeingEye Yes, but what would be the fun of just doing it on the street when you could flash people on the other side of the ocean? Creating the portal was always going to make people think, "Wouldn't it be funny if I did this to the portal so that everyone on the other side sees it?" It's not even the only similar thing that happened. There was also a person who put pictures of 9/11 up to the portal's camera to taunt the New Yorkers.

@PlasmaBallin clearly out of touch but I also think it's a little sweet that they were naive enough to believe it would just be a wholesome connection between two cities tbh

yeah it's worth pointing out that it seems like the flashing got way more press than a person in Dublin holding up their phone close to the camera with pictures of 9/11 on their screen - the NYC portal is near the former site of the towers iirc.
people find bare breasts more shocking than terrorism mocking I guess.

@shankypanky holy shit that's dark, I had no idea that was going on

@TheAllMemeingEye yeah someone caught it on video here

but from what I can tell it wasn't shut down until an "Instagram influencer" flashed people.

Instagram Influence flashes her chest in front of shocked bystanders at NYC-Dublin portal installation. Viewers looking through the portal in Dublin were left stunned after the woman pulled up her top in an effort to go viral on Instagram.

notably there were plenty of non-controversial things happening there too (I saw some people doing Irish dance in Dublin at some point which is cute?) and generally speaking I think there's way too much pearl-clutching about nudity, though I also think if the puritan perspectives on nudity didn't exist to the degree they do it wouldn't even be a clout chase to flash people to begin with.

but basically, suspending disbelief/pessimism for a moment, the portal is a nice project! and, if I were in that brainstorming session I probably would have imagined much worse things happening than did lol

@shankypanky hmmm, tbf I think a major part of the reason flashing is rightfully illegal is due to the severe distress it causes lone recipients due to significant risk of impending sexual assault, but arguably the fact that it was a woman perpetrating (hence much lower risk of assault), there were several bystanders, and it was virtual all reduce said problem, so arguably this shouldn't be considered in the same category

@TheAllMemeingEye oh, yeah I totally didn't mean for that to seem like I was advocating flashing or even people just wandering around nude in the city, at all. I'm pro-nudity but I'm not supportive of just making a spectacle of it like this, especially since you're just being self-serving and trying to do something edgy for instagram/recognition. sorry to conflate the two!

I don't think that a society that embraces (?) nudity is one that's free of sexual assault etc by any means. I just mean that it's such a huge taboo for a woman to lift her shirt that this is somehow a big extreme move from this woman, thinking it would pay off for her (and it seems like she was right tbh)

I guess what I meant was that I think it's disproportionate how much press it gets when someone displays nudity (which has nothing to say about how asinine I think it is to flash people there). and I get why this is the moment they shut it down, because people will likely just follow suit or do more extreme things to keep trying to top one another. it's just the nature of things at this point I guess.

back to the tweet, though, I do personally think it's wild that people would refer to this as "sexual violence," and it has nothing to do with my relationship with nudity. it's more about using very drastic language to get your point across when, in this case particularly, you can just turn away? at the risk of opening a tangential can of worms, it often feels like it's getting very common to use very dramatic language to victimise oneself to something they don't like, despite the fact that it simultaneously takes away the power of the words to describe the 'true' experience of that thing. if we start to commonly refer to being flashed on screen by someone lifting their shirt as 'sexual violence,' what's the impact when we use that term for truly violent acts?

(hope this comes across in the way I mean it lol)

@shankypanky yeah that makes sense 👍

noah smith: "America needs a prominent politician who's also a furry." https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1791525575661851065

🐈‍⬛

relevant market:

With the increased submission fee and the end of trader bonuses, this market might actually resolve permanently because no one wants to pay 250 mana to submit an option

@PlasmaBallin 😭😭😭

memeing in the early days of a post-Pivot world 🥺

If anyone has a banger they can't afford to submit feel free to comment it and I might add it!

@Joshua any chance of creator earnings being further divided into market creator and person who submitted an answer? So distribution would be 50% of fee burned, 25% goes to the question creator, 25% to person who submitted an answer

@jBosc I am pretty sure that the person who submitted the option gets the fees, I don't get any except on options I submitted.

@Joshua Hmmm, actually I'm not that sure but I'm going to go ask in the discord

@Joshua Gabrielle thinks it's the market creator based on the code: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1241225607686262844

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