Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of previous markets.
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@JimAusman I strongly suspect they eventually will, but if and when they do, it would make sense to try to make the most of it, which will require time, likely a somewhat focused and sustained bombing campaign beforehand, perhaps diversions of various kinds, etc. Throwing insufficient forces at well prepared defenses might be counterproductive, or at least suboptimal.
@JimAusman Just because they have more manpower than Ukraine, doesn't mean they have enough to win a new offensive. The Russians don't have big blocks of soldiers doing nothing, if they increase the tempo on one part of the front that means decreasing it in another. They're also limited on equipment and training which scale slower than manpower and aren't as visible.
And if they don't have an overwhelming advantage in manpower it also makes sense to consider war goals - are they going for Kyiv again? If not then an offensive in the North would ultimately be only a negotiating or tactical tool rather than conquest to take and hold land (which is at least the stated aim of the current offensives in the east/south and the war as a whole).
@JimAusman Good call, seems like Russia agreed with you. I'm not sure why they hadn't tried sooner.
Created a market specifically for Kharkiv in response to news about russia preparing to take over the city: https://manifold.markets/SlipperySloe/what-will-happen-to-kharkiv-in-2024?r=U2xpcHBlcnlTbG9l
@cowgoesmoo If the war ends without any major changes in territory, this resolves no. If there are major developments, this is resolves yes immediately (well, as soon as the changes and their scale are confirmed beyond doubt).
@PS What if the order goes:
1. There is no major change in territory due to military operations
2. The war ends with a treaty
3. The treaty involves major changes in territory compared to the current front lines, e.g. Russia gives up some of Kherson oblast to get more of Donetsk oblast.
In that case, would this resolve yes?
@PS Would you mind making a market just for Q1 of 2024? Since this is trading so high, near 70%, it might be worth it to have ones with shorter time frames. I’m happy to make one if you don’t want to.
@TimDuffy I just bet Yes, 45% (M20, that's all I had...), I think Russia will gain more territory before -24 ends. Maybe I believe too much in the guys at Judging Freedom though.