🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Jun 1
February starts
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March starts
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May starts
May 1
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
99%
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
98.5%
Joe Biden is alive for the entire month
98%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
94%
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
89%
An American union with over 1000 members is on strike for any amount of time
88%
It's the hottest May on record (based on global average temperature)
82%
The Myanmar resistance forces will gain territory on the map on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present)
82%
nvidia is above $888.00 at end of month
80%
This market will have fewer Traders than any of its predecessors at the end of May
76%
Manchester City win the FA Cup Final
63%
Maria Branyas, Tomiko Itooka, and John Tinniswood are all alive during the entire month
62%
im-a-good-gpt2-chatbot removed from Huggingface battle arena
60%
Eurovision Song Contest includes an unscripted/unapproved political statement
55%
It's the hottest May on record in the United States
54%
North Korea tests a nuclear-capable rocket
54%
When the poll closes, more Manifold users than not agree with the landmark accomplishment "Did AI pass the Turing Test in The Circle?"
53%
Any head of state/government is photographed or filmed crying
52%
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
51%
Starliner reaches orbit

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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bought Ṁ250 Answer #867e5ccad28b YES

@strutheo the trailer just dropped, resolves YES https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=YN2H_sKcmGw

(amusingly they waited to post it til 2 hours after the LotR teaser)

Eurovision Song Contest includes an unscripted/unapproved political statement
bought Ṁ300 Eurovision Song Cont... YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Link is poor. The singer from Portugal has her nails painted in keffiyeh print.

@ClubmasterTransparent I can see this going either way, but speaking as myself and not as the question maker, I just don't think "love beats hate" or "peace will win" are political statements. They're too vague and safe, even if we might infer what the person could have been referring to. "Free Palestine" or "Russia out of Georgia" or "Trans rights in [country name]" would have been an easy Yes.

@Panfilo Fair, but the keffiyeh nails?

@ClubmasterTransparent I'd be happy to leave it up to @strutheo if the nail flash counts as an "unscripted/unapproved political statement"

tough call ill look later, maybe 50% idk yet

Wasn't this added after the fact? It was added 5 hours ago, when the solar storm had already hit.

@MugaSofer i cant NA anymore... rip.

this is going to be annoying on ulmc mc markets @Joshua

@MugaSofer The solar storm had already hit but at the time the question was added it had only reached a G4 classification I believe

bought Ṁ50 Answer #ae8f678c1431 YES
bought Ṁ50 Answer #434fc3ac1aa9 YES

If one more person trades on this it'll reach 100 (so grab your little bit of free mana)

/TenShino/will-a-palestinian-flag-be-visible

bought Ṁ50 Answer #0072f6fe7cef NO

According to the linked market, Tumbles doesn't have any loans due until July.

opened a Ṁ69,696 Answer #0072f6fe7cef NO at 2% order

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Want to give me one due this month?

@strutheo resolves NO, mystik dan was BAY

@strutheo resolves NO, Mystik Dan first letter M

@strutheo resolves NO

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