Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Question

Note that to be declared eradicated, there must be zero reported cases for 3 years. From https://www.who.int/activities/certifying-eradication-of-dracunculiasis:

To be declared free of dracunculiasis, a country that has stopped transmission of the disease must have reported zero indigenous cases through active surveillance for at least 3 consecutive calendar years.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 38% chance (23 traders, as of Apr 1, 2026).