Will Mitch McConnell be alive on January 3, 2027? (End of his Senate term)

Question

This market resolves to YES if Senator Mitch McConnell is alive at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on January 3, 2027 (the constitutional end of his Senate term).

If he passes away at any point before this exact date and time, the market resolves to NO.

Resolution based on consensus reporting from major news organizations (e.g., AP News, Reuters, New York Times).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 73% chance (57 traders, as of Aug 18, 2026).