 if there is official confirmation that Iran has launched a direct military strike against Israeli territory before the end of February 2026.

2026 is not a leap year, so the strike must be launched by 

The attack must originate directly from Iranian territory. Strikes conducted by proxy groups (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen) strictly resolve 

The munitions (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or drones) must be aimed at internationally recognized Israeli territory.

If a projectile is launched from Iran but intercepted by defense systems before hitting the ground, it still counts as a 

Confirmation must come from entities such as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the U.S. Department of Defense, or an official claim of responsibility from the Iranian government/IRGC.

If no direct strike is launched before the February deadline, this market resolves NO, regardless of whether a strike happens in March.