Will the ID verification requirement for new users be reversed?

Question

Alongside the Prize Drawing announcement, Manifold has added a new identity verification system for new users. Users who don't provide ID and a selfie to pass the check (it uses the iDenfy API) are severely restricted. They apparently receive no starting mana and no quest bonuses, and they can't comment. This effectively makes the site unusable for anyone not willing to submit to the corporate panopticon. Existing users are grandfathered and not restricted.

These changes will be considered reversed if, without submitting to ID or selfie verification, new users:

Receive the same starting mana as before, or at least the same as ID-checked users.

Receive the same quest bonuses as before, or at least the same as ID-checked or grandfathered users.

Can comment and create markets/polls/posts freely.

All of these criteria must be fulfilled before the closing date (3 months from the change announcement) to resolve YES. The market will resolve YES early if this happens. Otherwise, the market will resolve NO on the closing date.

Restrictions on entry into the Prize Drawing, or restrictions on the referral system will not factor into the outcome of this market.

I may bet on this market. If the outcome is disputed, I will nominate a panel of 3 moderators to decide by vote.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (84 traders, as of Apr 11, 2026).