At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?

Question

"Chechen republic" and similar stuff would also count.

The purpose of this market is to predict if Chechnya would secede from Russia.

Resolves negatively if the United Nations themselves cease to exist before Chechnya can join them as an independent state.

Check out my similar markets about Sakha and Siberia in general:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/wadimiusz/at-any-point-before-start-of-2050-w)(https://manifold.markets/embed/market/at-any-point-before-the-start-of-20)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (7 traders, as of Sep 18, 2024).