By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Question

I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).

To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.

If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 35% chance (37 traders, as of Oct 6, 2026).