Resolves to the PROB I assign to the notion of "IQ tests measure intelligence", which I will likely translate into "IQ tests measure g and g is intelligence" unless I get convinced that g is not a good way of thinking about IQ tests.

At the time of making this market, I feel like IQ tests measure general cognitive abilities (g), that is, things which are useful across a wide variety of cognitive tasks. So if there's something about your mind that is useful for both playing video games, understanding the meaning of words, being good at programming, etc., then that thing is going to be measured by IQ tests. However, I think it is limited what useful things IQ tests measure beyond g.

At the time of making this market, I think g is a big component in the everyday concept known as "intelligence", but I doubt that it is the only thing that people think of as intelligence. Other things I think people might think of as intelligence include:

This is not meant to be an exhaustive list, though I think these are the most convincing possible alternatives to g. Since it is not exhaustive, shooting down these possibilities might not entirely convince me that IQ tests measure intelligence, though since it is the most convincing alternatives, it would definitely update me upwards.

An example of something that would convince me that IQ tests measure the commonsense concept of intelligence would be a study showing that if you have ask informants who know people well to rank people's intelligence, then the g factor has a correlation of >0.8 with the latent informant consensus factor. It is currently my understanding that the correlation is more like 0.5-0.7, though I haven't seen a satisfactory study yet to be sure.